000 AXNT20 KNHC 230004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 14N between 44W and 54W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 08N20W 08N30W 09N39W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in the coastal plains of Africa from 06N to 13N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 10N between 22W and 34W, and from 05N to 17N between 34W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Gale-force winds are forecast to be present at 23/0000 UTC in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 24N99W in Mexico, to 17N97W in Mexico. Please read the eastern Pacific Ocean High Seas Forecast...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Discussion...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the east of the line from the upper Texas coast to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. The drier air is related to the upper level trough and cold front that are described in the paragraph that covers the weather that is affecting the Atlantic Ocean, the Bahamas and south Florida, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and including the southern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Hebbronville. from the rest of Texas to Florida: VFR/no ceilings. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow/SW wind flow covers the area that is to the W and NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage, to eastern sections of Honduras. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N southward from 75W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is reaching parts of the eastern Caribbean Sea, from 65W eastward,at the edge of the cyclonic wind flow that is moving around an Atlantic Ocean 09N55W cyclonic circulation center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in the area of the cyclonic wind flow. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 22/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.07 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area of Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered strong is in the northern sections of the Dominican Republic between 69W and 72W. It appears that earlier precipitation has been weakening elsewhere across the rest of Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona/Santo Domingo/ La Romana: thunder and rain. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows SW wind flow, with a ridge to the ESE and a trough to the west. The GFS MODEL forecasts for 500 MB and for 700 mb show anticyclonic wind flow across the area during the next 48 hours. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough passes through 32N75W to the NW Bahamas and South Florida, NW Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near the coast of Honduras. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 20N northward from 70W westward. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N68W to 29N70W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, skirting the coast of NW Cuba, to 22N90W off the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 21N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 18N94W in the N part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is within 90 nm to 150 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 22N northward, and within 150 nm to 210 nm to the ESE and S of the cold front from 24N southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 24N northward between 59W and 70W in the Atlantic Ocean, and from 17N 24N between 60W and 77W in Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 11N55W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 08N to 14N between 50W and 60W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 14N between 50W and 62W near Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N36W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N to 29N between 30W and 53W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the areas of cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 29N northward from 33W eastward. This wind flow is related to a cyclonic circulation center that is well to the north of the area. An upper level trough passes through 32N13W, to the Cape Verde Islands, to 27N20W. The trough and cyclonic circulation center are supporting a cold front that passes through the Madeira Archipelago to 31N23W 31N30W and 31N36W. A stationary front continues from 31N36W beyond 32N41W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 27N northward from 40W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N to the eastern Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary from 60W eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT