000 AXNT20 KNHC 220530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 22/0300 UTC...a cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 27N82W to 25N90W to 22N98W generating near gale to gale force NW to N winds generally S of 25N W of the front and W of a surface trough analyzed from the front near 22N97W to 19N95W. These conditions are expected to continue through Saturday afternoon across portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 05N45W to 17N44W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing between 40W-50W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 11N. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-16N between 38W-48W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N22W to 06N30W to 07N41W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave along 45W...widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 20W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis extending from over the Carolinas S-SW to a broad base over the NE and north-central Gulf waters near 26N88W. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed across the central Florida peninsula to 25N90W to 22N98W and inland as a stationary front across interior portions of Mexico. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the western and SW Gulf waters generally S of 24N W of 91W in association with the front...in addition to the near gale to gale force NW to N winds mentioned above in the Special Features section. High pressure continues to build in across the lower Mississippi River valley this evening and will gradually drift eastward across the SE CONUS through Monday. Aside from the localized gale force wind conditions expected across the SW Gulf...elsewhere moderate to fresh N-NE winds are expected to persist through Sunday gradually veering NE to E Sunday into early Monday then mostly E to SE on Monday as the ridge shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis extending over the central and SE Bahamas SW to a broad base over the NW Caribbean waters near 18N85W. The troughing supports a surface trough analyzed from across eastern Cuba near 20N76W S-SW to across the SW Caribbean near 13N81W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of a line from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to 14N80W. Otherwise...the remainder of the NW Caribbean is under the influence of fair conditions and gentle to moderate N winds for the overnight period into Saturday. A cold front moving SE across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach the NW Caribbean by early Sunday morning increasing NE winds across the region into the moderate to occasional fresh breeze range Sunday into Sunday night. Elsewhere...the eastern and central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies this evening with moderate to fresh trades prevailing and expected to persist through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island with a line of scattered showers and tstms to the NW of the island stretching from the across the Turks and Caicos Islands SW through the Windward Passage to the NE coast of Jamaica near 18N76W. This activity is in association with a surface trough analyzed from 23N70W SW to Jamaica near 18N77W supported aloft by a middle to upper level shortwave trough progressing eastward over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Increased probability of scattered showers and tstms is expected through Sunday as the troughing lingers across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Special Features cold front continues to move eastward across the far NW portion of the SW North Atlc region with a mid-level shortwave supporting a 995 mb low centered near 33N71W and associated surface trough extending from the low S-SW to 30N71W to the SE Bahamas near 24N76W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are N of 26N between 67W-73W. Farther east...another weaker frontal trough extends from 23N70W to the Windward Passage region generating scattered showers and strong tstms generally from 20N-25N between 63W-73W. Isolated showers and tstms are elsewhere N of 25N between 58W-66W. The main cold front is expected to merge with the easternmost two frontal troughs by Sunday as ridging builds in across the western portion of the SW North Atlc. By Monday...the cold front will weaken slightly and become stationary between 57W-64W across the central Atlc. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc currently is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1033 mb high centered well N of the discussion area SE of Newfoundland Canada near 46N47W. One exception is a weakening cold front analyzed from near the Madeira Islands near 33N16W SW to 27N26W then stationary westward to 27N42W. Isolated showers and possible tstms are from 23N-28N between 28W-42W. This activity is supported aloft by a middle to upper level low centered near 24N40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN