000 AXNT20 KNHC 212344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 744 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends from 23N98W to 27N90W to 30N84W. Scatterometer data depicts gale force winds already occurring from 21N-25N and west of 97W. These conditions will continue through the next 24 hours mainly south of 25N and west of the front as it moves south across the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the High Seas Forecast... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the Offshore Forecast...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The Outlook, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC, consists of the persistence of a west or northwest near gale or gale in the northern part of IRVING and the northern part of MADEIRA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 17N48W to 05N49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-15N between 38W-53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa reaching the eastern Atlantic near 12N17W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 07N30W and 11N41W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described above, isolated showers are within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 24W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21/1800 UTC, a cold front extends from 23N98W to 27N90W to 30N84W, with gale force winds occurring from 21N-25N and west of 97W. Please refer to the section above for details. To the southwest across the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough extends from 22N93W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are observed along and west of the front from 20N-22N. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds north of the front while gentle to moderate westerly winds prevail south of the front. Expect during the next 24 hours for the front to continue moving south across the basin. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb surface low continues across the southwest Caribbean near 16N81W with surface trough extending from the low to 18N78W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the north-central Caribbean affecting portions of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection is observed across the western portion of the island supported by a diffluent flow aloft that prevails across the area. A similar pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1002 mb surface low is centered near 31N72W. To the southeast of it, a diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered convection south of 26N between 65W-73W. To the east, a cold front extends from 27N42W to 28N25W to 32N20W. Isolated showers are observed along the front between 34W-41W. A surface trough extends from 26N38W to 20N38W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 46N49W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA