000 AXNT20 KNHC 171657 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 41.4N 44.6W at 17/1500 UTC or about 485 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of center. See latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N25W to 15N24W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1013 mb low is centered at the southern extend of the wave axis and remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N-14N between 19W-27W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 06N29W to 09N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 11W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper level trough axis extends over the Florida peninsula and portions of the SW North Atlc leaving much of the Gulf under stable W-NW flow. Mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions prevail as a surface ridge axis extends from the across the Carolinas SW to the SW Gulf near 22N96W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds continue and are expected to persist through Tuesday as they increase slightly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Thursday night into early Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the western Caribbean this afternoon near 13N79W. Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery E of 70W... however W of 70W moisture and cloudiness increase as a diffluent environment continues to generate scattered showers and isolated strong tstms from 09N-18N between 75W-84W...including portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Isolated showers and tstms are elsewhere across portions of the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras region. Most of the strongest convection is focused along a surface trough analyzed from the coast of central Cuba near 21N79W to 19N81W to 11N81W. Otherwise...outside of convective areas...gentle to moderate trades are occurring and expected to persist through this evening. Tonight into Tuesday...global models are suggesting cyclogenesis to occur N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico resulting in a disruption of the usual trade wind flow. In addition...as cyclogenesis occurs and moves generally northward...lingering weak surface troughing will extend across the Greater Antilles into the SW Caribbean through Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... A shear line is analyzed to the north of the island along 22N. This low-level boundary in tandem with an upper level trough noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc is generating scattered showers and tstms across northern portions of the island and the adjacent coastal Atlc waters. The island is expected to remain within an area of weak surface troughing through Wednesday as cyclogenesis occurs across the SW North Atlc waters overnight into Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc and FLorida peninsula with a relatively broad base reaching south to 23N between 74W-82W. The troughing aloft is generating maximum diffluence to the east and inducing a surface trough analyzed from 28N73W to 23N77W. A large area of scattered showers and tstms is occurring from 19N-30N between 63W-75W. In addition...a shear line is analyzed from 21N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands near 21N72W providing further support for the convection previously mentioned. Farther east...the central Atlc is under the influence of a stationary front extending from the circulation associated with Hurricane Nicole well to the N of the discussion area. The front lies from 32N38W SW to 22N47W to 21N72W where the shear line begins. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front. Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 31N16W. The troughing supports a 1012 mb low centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula near 37N16W with a cold front extending SW from the low center to 32N19W the stationary into a weak 1017 mb low centered near 31N23W. The frontal troughing then extends to the SW with another surface trough analyzed from 24N27W to 16N35W. Isolated showers are possible within 45 nm either side of the surface trough boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN