000 AXNT20 KNHC 171112 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 712 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Nicole at 17/0900 UTC is near 41.0N 45.2W. Nicole is moving toward the NE, or 35 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 08N to 10N between 18W and 20W, and from 10N to 13N between 19W and 26W. A surface trough is along 59W/0W from 11N to 19N. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N between 46W and 60W. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean just to the east of the surface trough. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 08N20W 07N27W 10N29W 10N35W 12N41W and 11N46W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 07N between 10W and 15W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 12N southward between 20W and 40W, and from 01N northward from 04W eastward. Rainshowers are possible also from 12N southward between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 88W eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the trough that was in the NE corner of the area 24 hours ago, and now the same trough has moved into the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across much of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 29N85W 27N84W 25N83W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the east of the line from the coast of Louisiana near 29N90W to the Yucatan Channel, and from 27N southward from 89W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 24N southward from 88W westward, in the SW corner of the area. This anticyclonic wind flow is an extension of the upper level ridge that covers the Caribbean Sea, and to the east of an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is inland in Mexico. A surface ridge extends from south central Mississippi toward the SW corner of the area, to the coast of Mexico near 20N. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KXIH AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville and Falfurrias and Alice. IFR and MVFR conditions are in the Corpus Christi metropolitan area. MVFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. LIFR in Jasper and Conroe. LOUISIANA: LIFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area/ MVFR in other parts of the city. LIFR in other parts of LOUISIANA from Baton Rouge southward to the Gulf of Mexico coast, and westward to the border with TEXAS. Rain has been reported around the NE corner of Lake Pontchartrain during the last few observations. LIFR around the NW corner of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Natchez and in McComb. LIFR in Hattiesburg, and in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at the St.Pete/Clearwater International Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is along 84W/85W from eastern sections of Honduras southward. A surface trough is along 79W/80W from 18N southward. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 13N to 17N between 76W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N southward from 81W westward. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N southward from 69W westward. An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia northwestward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.49 in Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective precipitation: Warming cloud top temperatures and convective debris clouds are elsewhere from 17N northward in the Caribbean Sea between 68W and 82W. Scattered strong is reaching the northern coast of the island between 68W and 70W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings. Puerto Plata: rainshowers and thunder. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area for most of day one, becoming W wind flow at the end of day one. W wind flow will move across the area for the first half of day two. SW wind flow will move across the area for the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows SW-to-W wind flow will move across the area during day one. SW wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB show that an east-to-west oriented ridge that will be across the area at the beginning of day one eventually will give way to SW wind flow for the rest of day one. Expect SW wind flow during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N75W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba northward from 70W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 55W westward. Convective precipitation that is affecting the Bahamas is described in the second paragraph, whose subject is the stationary front with a shear line. An upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough supports a stationary front that passes through 31N39W to 22N50W and 21N66W. A shear line continues from 21N66W, to the SE Bahamas, to 23N75W and to 23N84W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm to the east of the front from 20N northward. Scattered to numerous strong from the coast of the Dominican Republic to 22N between 67W and 70W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 21N to 25N between 69W and 73W. Rainshowers are possible remainder of area from the Greater Antilles to 30N from 60W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level trough passes through 32N17W to 25N24W, to a 19N34W cyclonic circulation center, to 12N36W. A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 31N24W, to 29N24W 28N29W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between Africa and 23W. A second surface trough is along 24N27W 21N30W 17N34W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 45 nm on either side of the second trough. A surface ridge passes through 32N30W to 24N37W 16N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT