000 AXNT20 KNHC 162341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 39.7N 45.6W at 16/2100 UTC or about 534 nm southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 36N-46N between 40W-50W. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to a 1009 mb surface low near 08N22W to 10N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 18W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 35N79W. A surface trough connected to a 1012 mb surface low are located over the Bay of Campeche enhancing cloudiness and isolated convection south of 22N and west of 95W. Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper-level trough axis extends over the Florida Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts mainly moderate easterly winds prevailing across the basin. Little change is expected through late Thursday as the next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the western Caribbean near 14N80W. Moisture and cloudiness are increasing across the western Caribbean as a diffluent environment continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W affecting Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America. Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery E of 70W. A shear line extends from the west Atlantic across western Cuba and into the northwest waters from 21N79W to 20N81W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. During the next 24-48 hours, global models are suggesting cyclogenesis to occur N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico resulting in a disruption of the usual trade wind flow. This system is expected to move northward across the west Atlantic. A surface trough, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles, will enter the eastern Caribbean with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection prevails across the island at this time supported by a diffluent flow aloft combined with abundant moisture at low levels. This activity is expected to weaken and dissipate overnight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends across the western Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1022 mb and 1024 mb highs located near 35N79W and 37N72W. A diffluent flow aloft supports scattered moderate convection across the waters between 70W-80W. A shear line extends from northern Cuba near 22N77W to 21N67W then a cold front extends from that point to 23N48W to 32N40W. Isolated showers are observed along the cold front. A surface trough extends to the east of the Leeward Islands from 19N59W to 15N60W. A pair of surface troughs extends across the eastern portion of the basin: the first is from 25N31W to a 1004 mb low centered near 36N18W, and the second trough is from 17N35W to 25N25W. The far east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 26N19W. During the next 24-48 hours, global models are suggesting cyclogenesis to occur N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. This system is expected to move northward across the west Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA