000 AXNT20 KNHC 161639 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 39.1N 46.6W at 16/1500 UTC or about 540 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ESE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of a line from 44N43W to 39N47W to 35N55W. See latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 09N19W to 07N27W to 09N38W to 09N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 12W-17W...and from 03N-09N between 20W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper level trough axis extends over the far NE Gulf waters and northern Florida. The mid-level shortwave energy remains focused over the NE Gulf waters supporting a few isolated showers and tstms N of 26N between 83W-86W. Farther southwest...a weak 1012 mb low is centered near 20N95W with a surface trough extending N-NW along the Mexico coast to 23N98W. Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough is generating widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 19N-22N between 94W-97W. Otherwise...mainly moderate easterly winds prevail as surface ridging remains anchored across the SE CONUS. Little change is expected through Thursday as the next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Thursday night into early Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the western Caribbean this afternoon near 14N80W. Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery E of 72W... however W of 72W moisture and cloudiness increase as a diffluent environment continues to generate scattered showers and tstms from 07N-18N between 73W-84W...including much of Panama and portions of the remainder of Central America. Isolated showers and tstms are elsewhere across portions of the NW Caribbean. Otherwise...outside of convective areas...gentle to moderate trades are occurring and expected to persist through Monday. On Monday into Tuesday...global models are suggesting cyclogenesis to occur N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico resulting in a disruption of the usual trade wind flow. In addition...as cyclogenesis occurs and moves generally northward...lingering weak surface troughing will extend across the Greater Antilles into the SW Caribbean through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are currently observed across the island this afternoon. A few isolated showers are noted across the SW portion of the island and in the southern adjacent coastal waters...however skies overall are expected to remain under mostly stable conditions as NW flow prevails. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward currently noted on water vapor imagery over the Carolinas stretching an axis S-SW to a base over the central Florida peninsula. The troughing aloft is generating maximum diffluence to the east over much of the SW North Atlc waters between 70W-80W where scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring on the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored across the Delmarva and the Carolinas. In addition...a shear line is analyzed from 22N66W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W to 23N81W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 150 nm either side of the shear line. Farther east...the central Atlc is under the influence of a cold front extending from the circulation associated with Hurricane Nicole well to the N of the discussion area. The front lies from 32N41W SW to 23N50W to 22N66W where the shear line begins. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the cold front. Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 29N22W. The troughing supports a 1004 mb low centered near 36N18W with a surface trough extending SW from the low center to 30N24W to 22N37W. Another surface trough extends from 22N30W to 14N40W. Given the favorable upper level dynamics... isolated showers are occurring N of 22N E of 23W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN