000 AXNT20 KNHC 161119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Nicole at 16/0900 UTC is near 39.2N 47.7W. Nicole is moving toward the E, or 90 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 36N to 44N between 42W and 54W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the wave. A surface trough is along 59W from 11N to 17N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N to 16N between 58W and 59W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 54W and 60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N19W 08N23W 07N32W and 07N42W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 06N to 08N between 25W and 28W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters to the south of the Monsoon Trough between 10W and 25W, and within 90 nm on either side of the Monsoon Trough between 34W and 44W. Isolated moderate from the Monsoon Trough to 12N from 21W eastward. A surface trough is along 11N44W 07N45W 03N46W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere within 200 nm on either side of the trough. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is moving through the area from the Florida Big Bend and Tampa/St. Petersburg, and the NE Gulf of Mexico, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and beyond NE coastal Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery on the northern side of the trough. A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 20N94W. A surface trough is along 96W from 24N southward, in the SW corner of the area. An east-to- west oriented shear line is along 23N between 80W and 90W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate across the area. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KSPR and KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Jasper and Conroe. IFR in Tomball. MVFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: LIFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area, Lafayette, New Iberia, Baton Rouge, Galliano, and Patterson. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb. MVFR in Biloxi. ALABAMA: MVFR in Dothan. FLORIDA: light rain near Milton. MVFR in Mary Esther. IFR in Marianna and Tallahassee. LIFR in Perry. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is along 82W/83W from western Panama to 13N in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along the coast of Central America, from 17N to 11N, covering the eastern sections of Honduras to southern Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia, and NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 09N to 13N between 73W in Colombia and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 19N southward between 80W and 85W. An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia northwestward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.41 in Curacao, 0.04 in Bermuda, and 0.02 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 17N northward from 65W westward. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during all of day one, and for the first half of day two. W wind flow will move across the area for the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow will span the area for the first half of day one, followed by SW and W wind flow for the rest of day one. Expect W to SW wind flow across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB show that broad anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one,ending with an east-to-west oriented ridge across the area. Expect SW wind flow during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough supports a frontal trough that passes through 32N42W to 24N50W 22N60W. A shear line continues from 22N60W to 23N70W, across the southern Bahamas to 23N80W near Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico near 23N90W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 180 nm to east and southeast of the cold front, within 90 nm on either side of the shear line between 60W and 73W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from the shear line to 27N between 73W and 79W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level trough supports a 32N23W 27N30W 25N40W surface trough. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between Africa and the trough. A second surface trough is along 22N32W 18N36W 15N40W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to the southeast of the trough. A 1015 mb surface high pressure center is near 19N49W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is within 120 nm to 180 nm of the center. 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