000 AXNT20 KNHC 141046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 35.4N 59.2W at 14/0900 UTC or 586 nm south-southeast of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving east- northeast at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north of 33N between 54W-63W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Tropical Atlantic and extends its axis from 17N44W to 09N45W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough between 38W-47W and is embedded within a surge of moisture. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 16N72W to 09N73W, moving west at 15-20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough between 70W- 75W and is embedded within an area of abundant moisture. However, no associated deep convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 07N21W to 07N30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 16W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin. A surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W to 20N95W with isolated showers. To the south; a shearline extends from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Straits. Isolated showers are observed north of this feature from 20N-23N between 83W-88W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin. The surface trough will meander across the west and southwest Gulf as the surface ridge persists through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends from 19N80W to 13N80W. This feature combined with the Monsoon Trough that extends along 10N from 76W-83W and a diffluent flow aloft support cloudiness and isolated convection between 71W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. The surface trough and the tropical wave will continue moving westward and merge into a broad area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A diffluent flow aloft will support isolated convection across the island in the afternoon hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern continues to be Hurricane Nicole, which is moving east-northeast away from Bermuda. See the Special Features above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A shearline extends from 24N80W to 27N70W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and north of this feature between 72W- 77W. A surface trough extends south of the shearline from 22N76W to 25N68W. Isolated convection is observed in the vicinity of this trough. A 1020 mb surface high is centered near 23N47W. A surface trough extends east of the Lesser Antilles from 19N54W to 12N56W with isolated convection. To the east, a 1015 mb surface low is centered near 30N40W, with surface trough extending from the low to 28N42W. A 1020 surface high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 28N29W. Hurricane Nicole is expected to continue moving east-northeast with an increase in forward speed through the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA