000 AXNT20 KNHC 132346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 33.8N 62.3W at 14/0000 UTC or 155 nm northeast of Bermuda moving northeast at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 32N-35N between 61W-65W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 40W/41W from 9N-17N moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough and is embedded within a surge of moisture. Wave is along the western edge of an upper ridge with clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection removed east of the wave axis from 13N-18N between 32W-39W. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 68W from 15N to inland over Venezuela moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N and is embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no associated deep convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W along 10N17W 8N22W to 11N32W. The ITCZ is disrupted across the remainder of the Atlantic. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough east of 30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 3N-7N between 8W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the northeast CONUS with the trough axis extending through the west Atlantic clipping south Florida then into the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Straits of Florida south of 25N east of 85W. An upper ridge anchored along the west coast of Mexico extends across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N97W to the northeast Gulf and the Big Bend area of Florida. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air aloft covers the entire Gulf this evening. A remnant surface trough extends along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to just south of the Rio Grande. A surface ridge extends across the central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. The surface trough will meander across the west and southwest Gulf as the surface ridge persist through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad upper trough that extends the west Atlantic clipping south Florida dominates the Caribbean this evening. A surface trough extends from the south coast of Cuba near 20N78W along 16N79W to 11N78W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N-19N between 73W-80W, including Jamaica, as well as inland over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along 10N78W 9N81W then across Costa Rica near 10N84W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 13N west of 79W. The surface trough and the tropical wave will continue to move westward and merge into a broad area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... The broad upper trough over the Caribbean is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island this evening. The upper trough and lingering moisture will continue to give the island showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern this evening continues to be Hurricane Nicole moving northeast away from Bermuda. See Special Features above. The broad upper trough over the northeast CONUS covers the west Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 24N72W across the the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 75 nm either side of the surface trough. A weak 1016 mb high is to the southeast of Nicole near 28N50W. An upper low is centered in the east/central Atlantic near 30N35W with a weakening 1014 mb surface low near 30N41W. The upper low is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N-30N between 31W-37W. A surface ridge covers the east Atlantic north of 20N east of 40W anchored by a 1020 mb high near 29N27W. Hurricane Nicole is expected to turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed tonight or Friday. This will take Nicole further away from Bermuda. The west Atlantic surface trough will move southeast and become stationary along 22N on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW