000 AXNT20 KNHC 130534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 30.6N 66.2W at 13/0600 UTC or about 125 nm SW of Bermuda moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 28N-34N between 63W-69W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N37W to 15N35W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 13N. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-16N between 28W-39W. Tropical wave extends from 07N65W to 15N63W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 61W-66W on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the NE Caribbean Sea. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 08N21W to 11N32W to 09N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N41W to 10N50W to 12N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 14W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates dry air and subsidence aloft due in large part to a NW flow regime over the basin this evening. This is resulting in overall stable conditions at the surface as high pressure remains anchored across the SE CONUS with a ridge axis extending SW across much of the northern Gulf to NE Mexico. Recent scatterometer data...ship and buoy observations indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds which are expected through Saturday. By Saturday...the ridging across the SE CONUS will shift E-NE with winds veering E-SE and remaining in the gentle to moderate breeze range for the remainder of the weekend. Looking ahead...the next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered near 17N73W over the north-central Caribbean with axis extending S-SW to 12N76W. Dry N-NW flow aloft prevails W of the axis providing overall fair skies this evening with the exception of a few isolated showers occurring in the vicinity of Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba N of 19N between 77W-82W. Other scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring S of 15N between 72W-86W...due to the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N/11N. Otherwise...a weak surface trough is analyzed across Hispaniola providing focus for isolated showers that continue to move N into the adjacent coastal waters of the SW North Atlc. Finally...gentle to moderate trades prevail and are expected to persist through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as a surface trough extends from 17N73W to near 21N69W. Convection is expected to continue as an upper level low is centered over the region near 17N73W through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of the influence of Hurricane Nicole...surface ridging prevails across the SE CONUS anchored by a 1024 mb high centered in south-central Virginia. Primarily moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring across the SW North Atlc waters with only an area of scattered showers and tstms occurring across the waters S of the Bahamas from 21N-24N between 75W-79W. Farther east across the central and eastern Atlc...a cutoff middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery near 28N36W that supports a 1014 mb low centered near 30N41W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring to the E-SE of the low from 24N-31N between 32W-38W. Finally...an upper level trough continues to sweep over the Iberian peninsula and portions of NW Africa supporting a dissipating cold front extending from northern Morocco to near the Canary Islands. Fresh NW winds follow in wake of the front across far NE portions of the discussion area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN