000 AXNT20 KNHC 122352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 29.6N 66.4W at 13/0000 UTC or 185 nm south-southwest of Bermuda moving north-northeast at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 27N-32N between 65W-69W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 15N33W to 7N36W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and and is embedded within a surge of moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 8N-12N between 28W-35W. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 62W/63W from 15N to inland over Venezuela moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N and is embedded within a broad area of moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 11N54W to the Lesser Antilles near 15N61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W along 11N22W 12N27W to 9N38W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N45W to 11N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 8N-11N east of 16W to inland over Africa. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 5N-7N between 12W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad sweeping upper trough covers the Gulf of Mexico this evening with the upper trough axis extending from the mountains of North Carolina to along the Florida peninsula to over the northwest Caribbean. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air aloft cover most of the Gulf. The exception is in the southwest Gulf where a surface trough extends from 23N96W to inland over south Mexico to 18N95W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm along the surface trough. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high over Virginia into the north/central Gulf to over Mexico near Tampico. Northeasterly surface flow is ushering in some low to mid level clouds across the basin with isolated showers inland and along the immediate coast of the Florida peninsula. The surface trough will meander in the southwest Gulf as the surface ridge persists across the remainder of the basin through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico extends over the northwest Caribbean. An upper ridge extends across Central America into the Caribbean covering the area south of 18N west of 78W. An upper low is centered along the south coast of Hispaniola near 17N73W covering the central Caribbean and supporting a surface trough that extends from 20N69W across Hispaniola to 16N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to across Hispaniola between 69W- 73W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 11N75W to across Costa Rica near 10N84W and coupled with the upper low over the central Caribbean is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south 13N between 72W-84W. The surface trough and the tropical wave will merge into a broader area of lower pressure in the southwest Caribbean this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper low is centered along the south coast of Hispaniola near 17N73W supporting a surface trough that extends from 20N69W across Hispaniola to 16N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to across the island between 69W- 73W. The upper low will move north of the island and wash out by early Friday. The upper low and lingering moisture will continue to give the island showers and thunderstorms through Friday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern this evening is Hurricane Nicole south- southwest of Bermuda. See Special Features above. A broad upper trough covers the west Atlantic west of 72W. Southwest of Nicole is a mid level low centered near 23N73W with a surface trough extending from 24N72W across the Bahama Islands to north coast of Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the surface trough between the Bahama islands and Cuba. A weak 1019 mb high is to the east of Nicole near 31N51W. A large upper low is centered in the east/central Atlantic near 28N38W with a 1014 mb surface low near 30N40W. A surface trough extends from the surface low to 28N44W. The upper low is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N-30N between 33W-38W. A surface ridge covers the east Atlantic north of 20N east of 35W anchored by a 1020 mb high near 29N26W. Hurricane Nicole is expected to increase in forward speed tonight followed by a northeast turn and additional increase in forward speed on thursday. This will take Nicole near or over Bermuda on Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW