000 AXNT20 KNHC 120548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.7N 66.8W at 12/0600 UTC or about 290 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N- 30N between 63W-70W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 05N29W to 17N29W moving W at 15 kt. A 1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 08N and remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 26W-32W. Tropical wave extends from 06N59W to 16N58W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 55W-61W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 08N85W to 16N85W moving W at 15 kt. A maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity is in the vicinity of the wave axis between 80W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 82W-87W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 19N16W to 08N30W to 07N37W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N37W to 13N50W to 14N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 11W-14W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N-12N between 32W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf from near 28N96W into the SW Gulf near 19N94W providing focus for isolated showers and tstms occurring within 90 nm either side of the trough axis. Otherwise...dry and stable NW flow aloft prevails over the remainder of the basin as a surface ridge axis extends from across the Carolinas SW to the central Gulf waters. Primarily moderate to fresh E-NE winds prevail. The surface trough is expected to drift westward and weaken through Wednesday with little change in the synoptic pattern forecast through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered near 18N71W over the central Caribbean with axis extending S-SW to 12N77W. Dry N-NE flow aloft prevails W of the axis providing overall fair skies this evening with the exception of a few isolated showers and tstms associated with a tropical wave extending along 86W across Central America...and scattered showers and isolated strong tstms S of 13N between 71W-86W...due to the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N/11N. Otherwise...a weak surface trough is analyzed nearly beneath the upper level low from across eastern Hispaniola near 19N69W to near Aruba. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of 16N between 65W-73W in association with the troughing. A tropical wave along 59W will continue moving W and increase probabilities for precipitation and convection across the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. Isolated showers and tstms are currently S of 17N E of 63W. Finally...mainly moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as a surface trough extends from 19N70W to near Aruba. Convection is expected to continue as an upper level low is centered over the island near 18N71W through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of the influence of Hurricane Nicole...surface ridging prevails across the SE CONUS anchored by a 1026 mb high centered in South Carolina. Primarily fresh to strong NE winds are occurring across the SW North Atlc waters with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across the SE Bahamas...Turks and Caicos Islands...and the adjacent coastal waters from 21N-25N between 72W-76W. Farther east...Hurricane Nicole remains near the southern extent of a stationary front analyzed from 35N57W to 31N63W. Outside of the core convection near the center of Nicole...widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 24N-34N between 56W-65W. Finally...a cutoff middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery near 29N36W that supports a partially occluded 1014 mb low centered near 31N35W. The occluded front curls N-NE to a triple point near 34N30W with an associated cold front extending S to 26N30W. Beyond there...a stationary front extends to 21N40W to 24N49W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring from 22N-31N between 28W-37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN