000 AXNT20 KNHC 100542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.4N 65.3W at 10/0300 UTC or about 475 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 18N-27N between 58W-68W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 05N47W to 16N45W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 40W-48W and remains beneath southwesterly upper level flow. As a result... only isolated moderate convection is from 11N-13N between 43W-48W. Tropical wave extends from 09N63W to 18N61W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 58W-64W and abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-19N between 57W-62W. Tropical wave extends from 10N76W to 19N75W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the central Caribbean Sea between 70W-80W...and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 14N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-15N between 72W-78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to 06N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N23W to 06N33W to 04N39W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-12N between 12W-18W...and from 03N-10N between 34W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10/0300 UTC...a surface trough is analyzed across the central Gulf near 26N89W into the SW Gulf near 21N94W highlighting the remnants of an old frontal boundary which has weakened into a low-level convergence boundary with isolated showers focused within 90 nm either side. The troughing also indicates the broad cyclonic winds across the basin primarily gentle to moderate E-NE winds as surface ridging builds in across the eastern CONUS and extends across much of the basin. The surface trough is expected to drift westward through late Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic flow covers much of the Caribbean W of 70W this evening stemming from a ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc near 27N74W. With a tropical wave along 76W...scattered showers and tstms are focused in the vicinity of the wave and across northern Colombia...due also in part to the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough axis. Other scattered showers and strong tstms are occurring across portions of Central America from 10N- 17N between 82W-90W. Farther east...an upper level low is centered over the Windward Islands near 13N62W providing support for scattered showers and tstms S of 15N between 57W-62W. This convection is located on the eastern convergent side of a tropical wave along 62W. Otherwise...outside of the influence of the tropical waves...mainly moderate trades prevail and are expected to persist through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as Tropical Storm Nicole remains centered well N-NE across the SW North Atlc waters. Convection is expected to continue as upper level ridging and NE flow aloft remain over the island through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough moving off the New England coast with a mid-level shortwave in the vicinity of 37N68W. With the remnant surface low of Matthew analyzed as a 992 mb low centered off the Delmarva near 36N70W...the associated cold front is analyzed into the discussion area near 32N69W extending S-SW to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Isolated showers are possible within 120 nm E of the front. To the SE of the front... Tropical Storm Nicole continues drifting N and covers a large portion of the SW North Atlc region with cloudiness and ongoing convection. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 17N-28N between 54W-68W. Farther east...an upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery near 32N33W that supports a cold front analyzed from 32N30W to 27N40W to 28N46W then becomes stationary to 32N53W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 27N within 120 nm SE of the front...while isolated showers are elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the front W of 34W. Finally...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 32N18W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN