000 AXNT20 KNHC 092348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.2N 65.3W at 09/2100 UTC or about 487 nm S of Bermuda and remains nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are from 20N-26N between 60W-67W. Cloudiness and isolated showers related to Nicole as well as swells are moving across portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at this time. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 15N42W to 05N43W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment which combined with a diffluent upper-level flow generated by a short- wave trough near the wave area supports scattered moderate convection from 10N-13N between 39W-46W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic just east of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 17N58W to 08N60W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. A diffluent upper-level flow supports scattered showers from 11N-14N between 55W-60W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis from 19N73W to 10N74W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment and a trough at 700 mb is depicted in model guidance. Isolated showers are from 13N-16N between 74W-77W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 10N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N22W to 07N41W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave near the ITCZ, scattered showers are from 02N-10N between 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary has lost support at upper levels and extends across the central Gulf waters from 24N96W to 28N83W. No significant convection is related to this feature. Scatterometer data depict moderate to fresh northerly winds across the northern portion of the basin north of the front while a gentle to moderate easterly flow prevails south of the front. A surface trough extends just north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N92W to 23N87W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along this boundary between 85W-91W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the frontal boundary to continue weakening until dissipation. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern portion of the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. The Monsoon Trough extends across the southwest Caribbean along 10N between 76W-83W supporting scattered moderate convection. Tropical Storm Nicole continues nearly-stationary over southwest Atlantic waters just north of Puerto Rico supporting isolated showers over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Mona Passage and Hispaniola. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the west and central Caribbean waters while moderate to fresh southeasterly winds prevail east of 70W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west. The convection over the northeast Caribbean will begin to dissipate as Nicole moves north. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern portion of the basin with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers associated with Tropical Storm Nicole continue across the island as this cyclone is nearly-stationary over southwest Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico. This convection will continue through the next 12 hours and begin to dissipate as Nicole moves north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main concern across the basin is Tropical Storm Nicole located over southwest Atlantic waters just north of Puerto Rico. For winds and seas information associated to Nicole, see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC and also the special features section above. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. For more details, refer to the section above. A frontal boundary extends from the Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida Peninsula and into the west Atlantic waters from 28N80W to 29N77W. To the east; another front extends from 26N74W to 32N70W. NO significant convection is related to any of these boundaries at this time. A frontal system extends across the central Atlantic analyzed as a stationary front from 32N54W to 28N49W then ans a cold front from that point to 32N33W. Isolated showers prevail along the cold front. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1021 high centered near 33N17W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA