000 AXNT20 KNHC 091801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew is centered near 35.2N 72.9W at 09/1800 UTC or about 130 nm E of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered showers are from 37N-45N between 65W-77W. The center of Matthew will move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this evening. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through this afternoon along the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Rainfall will diminish across the coastal Mid-Atlantic by early afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch are possible across Delaware and eastern Maryland. Life-threatening flooding will continue over portions of eastern North Carolina that have received record rains from Matthew. Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.0N 65.4W at 09/1500 UTC or about 500 nm S of Bermuda and remains nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 21N to 24N between 65W and 67W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 18N to 26N between 57W and 69W. A combination of swells associated with Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew are expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 14N with axis near 42W moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and some dry air is still depicted in TPW and Meteosat enhanced imagery. Diffluent upper level flow generated by a short-wave upper trough support scattered showers from 09N to 13N between 33W and 41W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic just E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 06N to 17N with axis near 58W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Except for the region near the Windward Islands, the wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear, and patches of dry air are in the wave environment according to CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb. Scattered showers are within 120 nm W of the wave axis S of 11N. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 09N to 19N with axis near 73W moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear. Abundant low level moisture and diffluent flow at the upper levels support scattered showers from 12N to 16N between 72W and 75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N24W to 06N33W to 04N44W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are from 04N-07N E of 19W and within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the NE CONUS and NW Atlantic waters with a base reaching 28N. This trough aloft supports a cold front that at 1500 UTC extends from south Florida near 25N81W to 22N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Mostly dry air and subsidence remain aloft behind the front resulting in clear skies. Low to middle level moisture support isolated showers within 120 nm ahead of the front in the SW Gulf. Fresh to occasional strong NE winds are expected to persist through tonight N of the front. The front is forecast to move east of the Gulf by Monday as surface ridging holds across much of the eastern CONUS providing moderate to fresh E-NE winds Monday into Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Nicole continue nearly-stationary over SW N Atlantic waters N of Puerto Rico, thus supporting scattered to isolated showers over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Mona Passage and Hispaniola. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean supporting scattered showers from 12N to 16N between 72W and 75W. See the tropical waves section for further details. Similar convection is within 90 nm off the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize coasts and ahead of a cold front moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are in the SW basin S of 13N being supported by the EPAC monsoon trough. Outside of the influence of the tropical wave, mainly moderate SE flow prevail E of the wave axis and gentle to moderate E-NE winds prevail W of the wave axis. By tonight, the next tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles and the cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will enter the NW Caribbean. Showers over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola associated with Nicole will continue through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to isolated showers associated with Tropical Storm Nicole continue across the Island as this cyclone is nearly- stationary over SW N Atlantic waters N of Puerto Rico. Convection is expected to continue through Monday, but will resume again Tuesday associated with a cold front that will enter the NW Caribbean tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main concern in the forecast waters is Tropical Storm Nicole located over SW N Atlantic waters N of Puerto Rico, which is generating numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms from 21N to 24N between 65W and 67W and scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 18N to 26N between 57W and 69W. A combination of swells associated with Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew are expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions. For winds and seas associated with both Nicole and Matthew, see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC and also the special features section above. Farther NE...an upper level trough noted on water vapor imagery with axis near 36W supports a cold front analyzed from 30N35W to 28N41W to 28N49W where it becomes stationary to 30N54W. Widely scattered showers are occurring within 2010 nm E of the front N of 26N. Finally, the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 34N15W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS