000 AXNT20 KNHC 082346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 33.8N 78.2W at 08/2100 UTC or about 13 nm west-southwest of Cape Fear North Carolina, moving east-northeast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of 33N between 74W- 82W. The center of Matthew will continue moving near the coast of southern North Carolina tonight, with hurricane and tropical storm conditions expected to continue over the warned areas through the night. The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.8N 65.8W at 08/2100 UTC or about 452 nm south of Bermuda moving south-southwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms extends from 19N-25N between 62W-69W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 15N36W to 06N38W, moving west at 15-20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region where dry air prevails and with no upper-level support, no significant convection has developed. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 17N50W to 07N53W, moving west at 15-20 kt over the past 24 hours. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment which along with a diffluent flow in both the middle and upper levels support scattered moderate convection from 10N-16N between 46W- 54W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 19N67W to 11N69W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Abundant moisture also prevails in this wave's environment supporting scattered moderate convection from 13N-18N between 66W-71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N17W to 11N22W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 09N36W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated showers is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the northern half of the basin from 23N97W to 26N91W to 30N86W. Isolated showers are observed along the western portion of the front affecting the Bay of Campeche west of 95W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail north of the front while gentle easterly winds are south of the front. Water vapor imagery show strong dry air subsidence across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the front to continue moving south across the basin enhancing winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern portion of the basin. Please refer tot the section above for details. An upper-level trough is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends over the west Caribbean from 21N85W to 17N87W. The diffluent flow enhanced by this upper-level trough and the proximity of the Monsoon Trough are enhancing scattered moderate convection over portions of Central America and the southern Caribbean waters south of 16N between 79W-86W. The tropical wave described above and the proximity of Tropical Storm Nicole located north of Puerto Rico in the SW N Atlantic, are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico and the eastern waters between 65W-70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect during next 24 hours for the wave to continue moving west with convection affecting Hispaniola. Nicole will prevail north of Puerto Rico enhancing convection, seas and winds across the northeast Caribbean. The next tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across the Dominican Republic associated with the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Nicole centered in the SW N Atlantic waters. Showers will continue through the next 24 hours as a tropical wave approaches from the east. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Matthew is now N of our forecast waters, however tropical storm force winds prevail over central and NE Florida adjacent waters with seas up to 12 ft. The second feature of concern is Tropical Storm Nicole located about 452 nm south of Bermuda. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details and also the Special Features section above. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N19W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA