000 AXNT20 KNHC 081806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 33.0N 79.4W at 08/1500 UTC or about 48 nm S-SW of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and about 87 nm SW of Cape Fear North Carolina, moving northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Heavy showers are in the NE quadrant of Matthew within 90 nm of its center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 32N to 40N between 74W and 83W, including the Carolinas and Virginia. The center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South Carolina today, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina this afternoon, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through tonight. The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 25.2N 65.7W at 08/1500 UTC or about 430 nm south of Bermuda and about 408 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving south at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. A cluster of heavy showers and tstms is from 23N to 25N between 63.5W and 66.5W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in the SE semicircle within 300 nm of Nicole's center. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to 15N with axis near 36W moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and dry air is in the N-NW wave environment according to CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb. These factors are limiting the convection to scattered showers from 09N to 14N between 29W and 38W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 08N to 17N with axis near 50W moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and dry air is in the N-NW wave environment according to CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb as well as water vapor imagery. However, abundant shallow moisture in the remainder wave environment along with a diffluent flow in both the middle and upper levels support scattered heavy showers from 09N to 14N between 47W and 53W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean extending from 11N to 19N with axis near 68W moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear. Low level moisture and middle level diffluent flow support scattered showers from 13N to 16N between 66W and 71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N17W to 8N25W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N35W, then resume near 9N38W to 9N48W and then from 10N53W to 9N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 3N to 11N E of 15W and from 07N to 11N between 53W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW to W flow prevails in the E basin E of 86W associated with the broad wind field of Hurricane Matthew moving along the Carolinas coastline this afternoon. To the east, an upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes S to a base over the north- central Gulf supports a cold front from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to 27N92W to 24N97W. Scatterometer and surface data show fresh NE flow behind this frontal boundary that is expected to extend from the S Florida Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche by Sunday near sunrise. Water vapor imagery show strong dry air subsidence across the basin. Shallow moisture support isolated showers across the west-central Gulf ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Nicole is N of Puerto Rico in the SW N Atlantic. The rainbands of Nicole extend to the north-central and NE Caribbean, thus supporting scattered to isolated showers over Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. A tropical wave is entering central Caribbean waters where favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear, low level moisture and middle level diffluent flow support scattered showers from 13N to 16N between 66W and 71W. In the SW basin, low level moisture convergence and divergence aloft support scattered heavy showers within 120 nm off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, a surface trough is in the NW basin from 21N84W to 15N85W with isolated showers within 180 nm either side of its axis. Gentle to moderate trades dominate across Caribbean waters. A new tropical wave is expected to enter the basin Monday morning. The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will extends across NW Caribbean waters by Monday near sunrise. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across the Dominican Republic associated with the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Nicole located in the SW N Atlantic waters. Showers will continue later today through Sunday evening being enhanced by a tropical wave with axis just W of Puerto Rico early this afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Matthew is now N of the forecast waters, however tropical storm force winds prevail over central and NE Florida adjacent waters with seas up to 12 ft. The second feature of concern is Tropical Storm Nicole located about 408 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details and also the special features section above. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS