000 AXNT20 KNHC 081202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 32.5N 79.8W at 08/1200 UTC or about 17 nm south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina moving northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 95 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the the area north of 31N west of 77W to inland over Georgia and the Carolinas. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Nicole is centered near 25.9N 65.6W at 08/0900 UTC or about 382 nm south of Bermuda and about 450 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving south at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Convection is well removed from the low level center due to northerly shear. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60/75 nm of a line from 24N62W to 23N68W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is along 34W from 6N- 14N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough north of 10N and is embedded within a surge of moisture. Small clusters of isolated moderate convection are from 9N-13N between 30W-36W. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 8N51W to 16N48W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 9N-14N between 45W-51W. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 66W/67W from over Puerto Rico to the coast of Venezuela moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and remains embedded within a broad area of moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-17N between 66W-68W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 8N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N22W 8N27W to 7N30W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N between 12W-17W and from 5N-12N between 20W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough moving across the Mississippi Valley is supporting a cold front that enters the Gulf over southwest Louisiana near Lake Charles along 29N95W then over Texas near Corpus Christi. Otherwise benign upper features dominate the Gulf waters this monring with dry air, strong subsidence, and clear skies covering the Gulf north of 25N. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the area south of 25N. Fresh to strong north to northwest over the northeast Gulf will diminish this morning as Hurricane Matthew moves away from the area. The front will sweep southeast over the northwest and central Gulf today reaching from south Florida to the east Bay of Campeche Sunday. Strong northerly winds are expected in the southwest Gulf near Veracruz tonight through Sunday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low dominates the Caribbean this morning centered near 16N80W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 15N-21N between 80W-86W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 9N76W then over Panama generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 13N to over Colombia between 74W-76W and south of 13N west of 80W to the coast of Panama to south Nicaragua. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the east Caribbean east of 70W to over the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave will move south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into the central Caribbean through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies remain clear across the island this morning. The tropical wave will move south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Sunday. Mostly fair weather with possible evening showers will continue through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern again this morning continues to be Hurricane Matthew moving along the coast of of South and North Carolina. A secondary concern is Tropical Storm Nicole between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. See Special Features above. Lingering moisture is generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of a line from 24N80W along 28N77W to 31N77W. The remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge with a weak 1020 mb high near 29N23W. Matthew is expected turn to the northeast this afternoon. On this track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South Carolina this morning, and near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW