000 AXNT20 KNHC 080553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 31.6N 80.6W at 08/0600 UTC or about 40 nm south of Hilton Head, South Carolina and 85 nm south- southwest of Charleston, South Carolina moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 31N-32N between 80W-81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from 30N-33N west of 78W to the coast of Georgia and inland over South Carolina. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Nicole is centered near 26.3N 65.3W at 08/0300 UTC or about 360 nm south of Bermuda and about 480 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving south at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 23N-26N between 62W-68W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is along 31W/32W from 5N-16N moving west near 15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough north of 10N and is embedded within a surge of moisture. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 7N49W to 20N45W moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of moisture south of 16N. Small clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 10N-14N between 41W-49W. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 65W from over the Virgin Islands to the coast of Venezuela moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and remains embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 8N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N22W 8N27W to 7N30W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N between 12W-17W and from 5N-12N between 20W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Benign upper features dominate the Gulf waters tonight with dry air and strong subsidence covering the Gulf with clear skies north of 26N. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the area south of 26N. Fresh to strong north winds will affect the northeast Gulf tonight as Hurricane Matthew moves along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. An upper trough moving across the upper and middle Mississippi Valley is supporting a cold front that is currently inland over east Texas. This front will move into the northwest Gulf by morning and reach south Florida to south Mexico by Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected northwest of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low dominates the Caribbean tonight centered near 15N77W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 14N-20N between 78W-85W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along 9N80W to across Costa Rica near 10N84W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N between Colombia and Costa Rica. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the east Caribbean east of 70W to over the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave will move south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into the central Caribbean through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies remain clear across the island tonight. The tropical wave will move south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Sunday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern again tonight continues to be Hurricane Matthew moving along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. A secondary concern is Tropical Storm Nicole between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. See Special Features above. Lingering moisture is generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 22N-31N west of 74W to over the Florida peninsula. The remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge with a weak 1016 mb high near 28N48W. Matthew is expected turn to north-northeast and then to the northeast during the day Saturday. On this track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of Georgia through tonight, near or over the coast of South Carolina later tonight and Saturday, and near the coast of southern North Carolina on Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW