000 AXNT20 KNHC 071205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 28.9N 80.3W at 07/1200 UTC or about 30 nm N-NE of Cape Canaveral, Florida and about 39 nm southeast of Daytona Beach, Florida moving north-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt making Matthew a category 3 hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 45 nm over the west semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from 26N-30N west of 74W to over the Florida peninsula. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.3N 65.2W at 07/0900 UTC or 300 nm south of Bermuda moving south near 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-28N between 62W-66W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic is along 42W/43W from 7N-14N moving west 5 to 10 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and and is within an area of drier air. Thus, no associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 68W from the Mona Passage to over Venezuela moving northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is west of a 700 mb trough and remains embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 9N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N27W to 8N35W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 4N-9N between 11W-18W and from 8N-13N between 23W-34W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-8N between 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge over the west Gulf is anchored just off the coast of Mexico near Veracruz and extends an upper ridge axis northeast to 27N90W. An upper trough over the southeast CONUS extends into the east Gulf over southeast Louisiana along 27N88W continuing over the east Yucatan peninsula and through the Yucatan Channel to the northwest Caribbean. Dense low clouds, with no showers evident on radar, cover the northeast Gulf north of 26N east of 90W. Hurricane Matthew is bringing isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the far east Gulf south of 26N east of 86W through the Straits of Florida. This activity will continue as Hurricane Matthew moves along the east coast of Florida. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the northeast Gulf today as Hurricane Matthew moves along the east coast of Florida. A cold front will push into the northwest Gulf Saturday reaching from southern Florida to southern Mexico Sunday. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected north of the front. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft near the coast of Veracruz with northerly strong to near gale force winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends over the east Yucatan peninsula and through the Yucatan Channel to over Central America with an upper low along the coast of the Yucatan near 20N87W. This upper trough covers the northwest Caribbean west of 84W. A narrow upper ridge associated with Hurricane Mathew extends south across central Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua near 13N84W. An inverted upper trough covers the remainder of the Caribbean east of 79W with an upper low near 15N74W. Lingering moisture is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Panama to over Cuba between 74W-83W. The tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean through Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies are clear across the island this morning. The tropical wave will approach the island today through Saturday. This could bring isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to the island Friday night and Saturday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern again this morning continues to be Hurricane Matthew moving along the east coast of Florida. A secondary concern is Hurricane Nicole south of Bermuda. See Special Features above. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a stationary front that extends through 32N26W to 30N37W with scattered showers within 75 nm south of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high west of the Azores and a weak 1019 mb high near 28N50W. Matthew is expected turn to north tonight or Saturday. On this track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW