000 AXNT20 KNHC 070603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 27.6N 79.7W at 07/0600 UTC or about 39 nm east of Vero Beach, Florida and 69 nm southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt making Matthew a category 3 hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 30 nm over north semicircle and within 45 nm over south semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from 24N-31N west of 73W to over the Florida peninsula. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.4N 65.2W at 07/0300 UTC or 295 nm south of Bermuda. Nicole is currently stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-28N between 62W-66W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave was introduced in the central Tropical Atlantic along 43W/43W from 7N-15N moving west 5 to 10 kt over the past 6 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and but is within an area of drier air. Thus, no associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 66W/67W from Puerto Rico to over Venezuela moving northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is west of a 700 mb trough and remains embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W to 12N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N31W to 8N45W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-10N between 12W-17W and from 5N-12N between 23W-34W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-8N between 19W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge over the west Gulf is anchored along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz and extends an upper ridge axis northeast to 26N90W. An upper trough extends covers the southeast CONUS and extends into the east Gulf over southeast Louisiana along 26N89W continuing through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean. Dense low clouds, with no showers evident on radar, cover the northeast Gulf north of 26N east of 90W to the coast of Florida. Hurricane Matthew is bringing scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the far east Gulf south of 29N east of 84W. This activity will continue as Hurricane Matthew moves along the east coast of Florida. Winds and seas will continue over the east Gulf through Friday night as Hurricane Matthew moves along the east coast of Florida. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Saturday then reach the southeast Gulf on late Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends through the Yucatan Channel through an upper low near 20N85W to over Central America covering the northwest Caribbean west of 83W. An upper ridge associated with Hurricane Mathew extends across central Cuba to the south coast of Nicaragua. An inverted upper trough covers the remainder of the Caribbean east of 76W with an upper low near 14N72W. Lingering moisture and the circulation associated with Hurricane Matthew are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 21N to Cuba between 74W-82W. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the north/central Caribbean tonight. The tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean Friday and Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies are clear across most of the island tonight with the exception of some isolated showers over the southwest peninsula of Haiti west of 73W. The tropical wave will approach the island late Friday and Saturday. This could bring isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to the island Friday night and Saturday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern tonight continues to be Hurricane Matthew moving along the east coast of Florida. A secondary concern is Hurricane Nicole south of Bermuda. See Special Features above. The remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high west of the Azores and a pair of weak 1021 mb highs near 30N51W and 28N38W. Matthew is expected turn to north-northwest on Friday with a turn to north Friday night or Saturday. On this track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday night, and near or over the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW