000 AXNT20 KNHC 062348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 26.4N 78.8W at 06/2300 UTC or about 4 nm south of Freeport Grand Bahama Island, moving northwest near 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt making Matthew a strong category 4 hurricane. Estimated central minimum pressure is 938 mb. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed from 23N-31W between 75W-81W affecting portions of the Florida Peninsula, the Bahamas and less activity over northern Cuba. Matthew is expected to continue moving northwest approaching the Florida Peninsula during the next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.5N 65.1W at 06/2100 UTC or 288 nm south of Bermuda, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 25N-29N between 62W-66W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Caribbean with axis from 18N66W to northern Venezuela 08N66W, moving west near 10 kt. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough depicted by global guidance and is embedded within an area of low-level moisture. Despite this, no significant convection is related to this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 10N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 07N30W to a 1007 mb surface low located near 07N42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 20W-35W. Isolated showers surround the low. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the Florida Straits and Florida Peninsula mainly east of 82W due to Matthew. Please refer to the section above for more information about this hurricane. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin, with a surface ridge extending over the area anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over northeastern CONUS. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle northeasterly winds across the western portion of the basin while gentle to moderate northeasterly winds are east of 90W, with strongest winds north of 28W. Expect a similar weather pattern through the next 24 hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated showers prevail over northern Cuba due to Matthew. No significant convection is observed across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west. A surface trough, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles, will move west over the islands with convection. the rain over Cuba will dissipate as Matthew continues moving northwest. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island. Moisture will increase during the next 24 hours as a tropical wave approaches from the east. Scattered showers could develop in the afternoon hours as the moisture combines with diurnal heating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Matthew continues moving northwest across the west Atlantic affecting the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula while Nicole became a hurricane this afternoon, with winds of 75 kt gusting to 95 kt. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends to the east of the Lesser Antilles from 15N58W to 11N58W. Scattered light to moderate convection is observed from 11N-19N between 54W-60W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high near 29N50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA