000 AXNT20 KNHC 061801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 25.7N 78.4W at 06/1800 UTC or about 56 nm south-southeast of Nassau and ab Matthew is expected to track northwest today with a turn to north-northwest expected tonight. The center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night.out 108 nm east- southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt making Matthew a strong category 4 hurricane. Numerous strong convection is from 23N-26N between 76W-79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 20N-29N between 74W-80W, including portions of Cuba and the central Bahama Islands. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.3N 65.0W at 06/1800 UTC or 300 nm south of Bermuda and about 539 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 24N-29N between 62W-66W. See latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Matthew is expected to track northwest today with a turn to north-northwest expected tonight. The center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night. Tropical wave is over the E Caribbean from 19N65W to 09N65W moving west near 15 kt. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and remains embedded within an area of low level moisture. The wave is mostly void of precipitation. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N15W to 10N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 07N2Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 5N-10N between 47W-51W.4W to 07N40W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 04N-11N between Matthew is expected to track northwest today with a turn to north-northwest expected tonight. The center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night. 21W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... 15-20 kt northerly winds are over Central and Southern Florida, and the SE Gulf of Mexico due to the northern extent of Hurricane Matthew. Bands of scattered moderate convection are now over S Florida and the Florida Keys. 15-25 kt NE winds are over the N Gulf N of 28N due to surface ridging. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over S Mexico near 18N97W. A small upper level low is also centered over the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W. Expect over the next 24 hours for surface winds to increase over the E Gulf E of 85W to 20-30 kt due to the expanded wind field of Hurricane Matthew. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection persists over Central Cuba due to Hurricane Matthew. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 65W, void of precipitation. A surface trough is ,however, just E of the Caribbean from 16N55W to 11N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-16N between 54W-60W moving W into the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is also centered over the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W. Another upper level low is centered over the SE Caribbean near 11N66W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the convection over Central Cuba to move N, while, increased convection enters the E Caribbean due to the surface trough. ...HISPANIOLA... Broken to overcast multilayered clouds with scattered showers persist over Haiti. Mostly fair weather is over The Dominican Republic. Expect gradual clearing over Haiti within the next 24 hours as Matthew moves away from the Island. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A main concern today is Hurricane Matthew moving across the Bahamas and toward the southeast Florida. Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of the central Bahamas and are already spreading across the northwestern Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida within the next several hours. A secondary concern is Hurricane Nicole also over the Western Atlantic. See Special Features above. A 1022 mb high is centered over the Central Atlantic near 31N51W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa