000 AXNT20 KNHC 042357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 20.1N 74.3W at 05/0000 UTC or about 10 nm SW of the eastern tip of Cuba and about 50 nm ENE of Guantanamo Cuba moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 18N-21N between 72W-75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 14N-22N between 66W-79W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.1N 61.1W at 04/2100 UTC or about 440 nm NE of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-26N between 57W-62W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N56N to 17N51W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 15N between 49W-59W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N-15N between 45W-59W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N19W to 05N30W to 06N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N-13N between 13W-16W...and from 04N-07N between 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from over eastern Georgia S-SW over much of the eastern Gulf waters to a base over Guatemala this evening while upper level ridging prevails over much of the western Gulf W of 90W. With the trough axis remaining generally E of 85W...southwesterly flow aloft and a surface trough extending across the central Florida peninsula is providing focus for isolated showers and tstms N of 26N E of 85W...including interior portions of the Florida peninsula. Farther west...water vapor imagery indicates dry air and overall subsidence influences the western waters with mostly fair skies and conditions. A weak surface trough however is analyzed from the Louisiana coast near 30N93W to 26N94W supporting isolated low-topped showers N of 25N between 91W-95W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted as ridging holds across much of the basin as Hurricane Matthew tracks northward across the far western SW North Atlc waters to the east. As Matthew tracks N-NW and nearly parallels the Florida peninsula coast in the SW North Atlc...the pressure gradient is expected to strengthen Wednesday night into Thursday across the NE Gulf waters providing the eastern Gulf with fresh to strong N-NE winds through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern is Hurricane Matthew located in the Windward Passage region. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of 80W while an upper level trough axis extends from over the NE Gulf of Mexico waters S-SW to a base over Guatemala this evening. Water vapor imagery indicates the upper level troughing remains embedded within dry air however a few isolated showers and tstms are noted across western Cuba and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Farther south...a few isolated showers and tstms are occurring across Nicaragua...Costa Rica...and Panama as weak convergence extends eastward from the East Pacific region along 10N/11N. Otherwise as Matthew tracks northward into the SW North Atlc overnight...the trades will continue to be disrupted through early Wednesday then begin re-establishing themselves from east to west thereafter through Friday night into Saturday as Matthew is expected to be centered well north of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... With Hurricane Matthew centered in the Windward Passage region...numerous showers and strong tstms continue across Hispaniola this evening. Matthew is expected continue generating strong winds...heavy rainfall...life-threatening flash flooding...mud slides...dangerous storm surge...and large destructive waves through the overnight hours into Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough with axis over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is providing much of the far northwestern portions of the SW North Atlc N of 26N W of 68W with moist and unstable SW flow aloft. This trough supports a surface trough extending from 32N75W to the Florida peninsula near 28N81W. Scattered showers and tstms are generally occurring N of 27N W of 70W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of the overall broad cyclonic circulation of Matthew as it tracks northward through the Windward Passage this evening. Outer convective bands are generating scattered showers and tstms across much of eastern Cuba... Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and a large portion of the SW North Atlc waters S of 26N W of 65W. The other important feature in the Atlc is Tropical Storm Nicole detailed above. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N51W and a 1021 mb high centered near 29N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN