000 AXNT20 KNHC 040016 AAB TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 816 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 Updated Hurricane Matthew minimum pressure information Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 16.6N 74.6W at 04/0000 UTC or about 100 nm S of Tiburon Haiti and about 175 nm SW of Port au Prince Haiti moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 14N-17N between 73W-76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N-21N between 68W-78W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 24N60W that nearly coincides with a mid-level area of low pressure on the southern periphery of a middle to upper level ridge to the north anchored along 30N. The low is expected to move NW at 10-15 kt through Wednesday. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-25N between 55W-60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 05N49N to 14N45W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 14N between 42W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-18N between 38W-51W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N19W to 04N28W to 05N37W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-08W between 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends over the SE CONUS and central Gulf with axis from over eastern Alabama southward to over the Yucatan peninsula and a base over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region in the eastern Pacific. Global models indicate mid-level shortwave energy on the back side of the trough in the vicinity of 25N90W that supports a surface trough from 22N94W to 26N92W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 21N-26N between 89W-93W...mainly E of the surface trough axis. East of the upper level trough axis...diffluence is maximized N of 24N E of 85W supporting scattered showers and tstms across the far eastern Gulf waters and portions of the Florida peninsula. Otherwise...gentle to moderate E-NE winds are expected through the overnight hours into Tuesday and then winds will shift more anticyclonic and remain in the gentle to moderate range Tuesday night into Wednesday as Hurricane Matthew tracks through the Windward Passage region and into the SW North Atlc waters. The pressure gradient is expected to strengthen Wednesday across the far eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula as Matthew tracks N-NW providing the eastern Gulf with fresh to strong NE winds through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern is Hurricane Matthew located in the central Caribbean tracking towards the Windward Passage region. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of 85W while an upper level trough axis extends from over the Yucatan peninsula S-SW to over western Guatemala this evening. The upper level troughing is supportive of isolated showers and tstms across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise as Matthew tracks generally northward the next few days...the trades will continue to be disrupted through Tuesday night into Wednesday when Matthew is expected to be centered north of eastern Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades will begin re- establishing themselves from east to west thereafter through the second half of next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness and convection associated with the outer bands of Matthew continues moving over the island this evening. Matthew remains centered S-SW of Hispaniola with numerous showers and scattered tstms expected to continue through the overnight hours into Tuesday. Matthew is expected to reach the SW tip of Haiti on Tuesday bringing strong winds...heavy rainfall...life-threatening flash flooding...mud slides...dangerous storm surge...and large destructive waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough with axis over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is providing much of the far northwestern portions of the SW North Atlc N of 25N W of 73W with moist and unstable SW flow aloft. This trough supports a surface trough extending from 32N75W to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W. Scattered showers and tstms are generally occurring N of 26N W of 73W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of the overall broad cyclonic circulation of Matthew as it tracks northward toward the Windward Passage region of the Caribbean Sea waters. Outer convective bands are generating scattered showers and tstms across much of eastern Cuba...Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and a large portion of the Leeward Islands. The other important feature in the Atlc is a 1012 mb special features low centered near 24N60W mentioned above. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 27N39W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN