000 AXNT20 KNHC 031200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Matthew is centered near 15.4N 74.9W at 03/1200 UTC or about 243 nm SW of Port au Prince Haiti and about 191 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 13N to 16N between 73W and 76W. Similar convection along with tstms is observed from 13N to 18N between 70W and 73W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 69W and 78W. The center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, mud slides, dangerous storm surge and large destructive waves are expected. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N to 17N with an associated 1010 mb low centered near 11N42W. Both the wave axis and the low center has been moving W at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Upper level diffluence and abundant low level moisture in the wave environment as seen in CIRA LPW support scattered showers within 120 nm either side of its axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 05N20W to 06N37W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, a cluster of heavy showers and tstms is from 13N to 17N between 28W and 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered trough extends from the Lower Great Lakes SW across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley, S across the central Gulf to a base over Guatemala. The trough aloft has weaken, thus the stationary front that it supported across the Gulf has started to dissipate along 29N83W to 27N90W where a surface trough trails to 26N95W. Diffluent flow generated by the trough aloft and broad upper ridging covering the Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms in the SE basin ahead of the frontal boundary, including the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel. Similar convection is within 120 nm N of the front E of 90W. The front is expected to gradually become diffuse today with gentle to occasional moderate E-SE winds expected as ridging builds southwestward across the western Gulf tonight and Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern in the basin is major Hurricane Matthew located in the central Caribbean. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of 83W while an upper level trough axis extends across the central Gulf to a base over Guatemala. Diffluent flow between these two upper features support scattered to isolated showers and tstms W of 80W. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba Tuesday. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. See the special features section for details. GOES Quantitative Precipitation Estimate show rainfall accumulations of up to one inch in Jamaica over the past 6 hours. Otherwise as Matthew tracks northward the next few days...the trades will continue to be disrupted through Tuesday night into Wednesday when Matthew is expected to be centered north of eastern Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades will begin re-establish from east to west thereafter through the second half of next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to heavy showers associated with the outer bands of major Hurricane Matthew are already moving across SW Dominican Republic and Haiti. The center of Matthew is expected to reach the SW tip of Haiti by early Tuesday morning bringing strong winds, heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, mud slides, dangerous storm surge and large destructive waves. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. See the special features section for further details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Diffluent wind flow generated by the upper trough across the Gulf of Mexico and the broad ridge covering the Caribbean and the southern Bahamas support scattered showers and tstms N of 23N W of 74W. The north-central Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 27N42W. The other important feature in the Atlc is a 1011 mb low centered near 22N56W. The low is supported aloft by a middle level low centered near 20N59W. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the low center. Otherwise, as Matthew tracks northward across the central Caribbean, the weak ridging in place will shift east with Matthew moving into the SW North Atlc region by early Wednesday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS