000 AXNT20 KNHC 011758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 13.4N 73.4W at 01/1500 UTC or about 317 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 339 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous strong convection is from 11N-16N between 69W-75W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N-17N between 68W-76W. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti over the next three to four days. This rainfall could produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1011 mb low near 13N36W to 20N35W, moving W at 15-20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a moist region as depicted in the total precipitable water imagery,however, Saharan dry air and dust is just west of the wave environment. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1011 mb low near 16N52W to 23N54W, moving WNW at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. Again, Saharan dry air and dust is west of the wave environment. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 15N-23N between 48W-52W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N15W to 09N20W to 11N32W to 09N37W. The ITCZ begins near 09N37W and continues to 07N40W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the monsoon trough from 11N-14N between 22W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A quasi-stationary front extends from Central Florida near Cocoa Beach to Tampa and continues to the Central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to the SW Gulf near Tampico Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. 10-15 kt northerly winds are N of the front, while 5-10 kt southerly winds are S of the front. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Expect the front to gradually become diffuse Sunday with light E-NE surface winds to follow due to ridging. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew located in the south-central Caribbean. See the special features section for details. Scattered showers are off the coast of Nicaragua, and over the Gulf of Honduras. More showers are noted on radar both north and south of Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the easterlies. In the upper levels, westerlies prevail over the Caribbean except over Matthew. Expect Matthew to follow a mostly northerly track over the next three to four days. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection together with high surf is along the southern coast of Hispaniola due to Hurricane Matthew. Expect Matthew to move closer to Haiti over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary front extends over the Western Atlantic from 31N79W to Central Florida near Cocoa Beach. Isolated moderate convection is from 25N to beyond 31N between 74W-80W. A 1022 mb high is over the Central Atlantic near 30N39W moving ESE. Expect the tropical waves to move W over the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA