000 AXNT20 KNHC 302349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 749 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 13.5N 72.0W at 01/0000 UTC or about 70 nm NNW of Punta Gallinas Colombia and about 380 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 12N-15N between 68W-73W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N-16N between 67W-74W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 12N32N to 19N30W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing S of 20N between 28W-37W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis between 28W-34W. In addition...a weak 1010 mb low is noted along the axis near 13N that remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 13N50W to 23N51W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within broad 700 mb troughing between 42W- 56W...and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity between 48W-55W. A 1009 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis near 13N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N-17N between 44W-50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 13N-21N between 37W-46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 14N31W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N-13W between 14W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad deep layered low is centered over much of the Ohio River valley this evening with troughing dipping southward over the eastern Gulf to a broad base over the NW Caribbean Sea. The trough supports a stationary front extending across the northern Florida peninsula to 28N83W to 27N90W to 23N97W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the SW Gulf generally S of the front W of 94W and is likely enhanced due to an upper level diffluent environment between the troughing and an upper level anticyclone centered over west-central Mexico. A few other area of isolated showers are occurring across the remaining southern Gulf waters...however the strongest convection this evening remains across interior portions of the the Florida peninsula and Florida straits in the adjacent waters north of Cuba. N of the front... mostly clear skies prevail as a surface ridge remains anchored across Oklahoma and the ARKLATEX region. The front is expected to gradually become diffuse through the weekend into early next week with light to gentle E-NE winds expected as ridging slides eastward to the N across the SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern is Hurricane Matthew located in the central Caribbean. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of 80W while an upper level trough axis extends from over western Cuba S-SW to over western Honduras this evening. The upper level troughing is supportive of scattered showers and isolated tstms across the NW Caribbean with stronger convection occurring across inland portions of western Cuba...Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan peninsula. Across the SW Caribbean...the Monsoon Trough axis extends along 10N from northern Colombia to Costa Rica and is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms occurring S of 13N between 75W-85W. Otherwise as Matthew tracks across the central Caribbean through early next week...the trades will continue to be disrupted through Tuesday when Matthew is expected to be centered north of eastern Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades will begin re-establishing themselves from east to west thereafter through the second half of next week. ...HISPANIOLA... High level cloudiness continues moving over the island this evening as Matthew remains centered well south of Hispaniola. Isolated showers and tstms are possible across the island through the overnight hours into Saturday. Matthew is expected to continue on a westerly track through late Saturday before making a turn toward the northwest then north late in the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The deep layered trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico extends over the far western portions of the SW North Atlc west of 75W supporting a cold front extending from 33N79W to 31N80W then becomes stationary to the Florida peninsula near 29N81W. Skies are clear W of the front with scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 25N W of 73W. The remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 40N31W that extends an axis SW to 32N45W then W to Bermuda near 32N65W. The surface ridging is expected to persist through the weekend as Matthew moves through the Caribbean Sea. Then as Matthew begins its northward track...the ridge will shift east as Matthew moves into the SW North Atlc by early Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN