000 AXNT20 KNHC 261143 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 17N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 09N along the tropical wave. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 09N to 13N between 42W and 50W. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone for this feature is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 12N between 08W and 20W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/63W from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough and its related cyclonic wind flow. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N to 20N between 54W and 65W. Isolated moderate from 12N southward between 60W and 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N30W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 42W/43W tropical wave, to 05N52w. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, in east-to- west oriented lines, elsewhere, from 04N to 13N between 07W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving through south Texas/SE Texas/the Texas coastal plains. Broad surface low pressure, in the form of two surface troughs, is in the coastal waters of Texas. Convective precipitation: scattered strong in the Texas coastal waters/ coastal plains from 25N in Mexico to 29N in Texas. scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico from 23N to 27N between 90W and land. A diurnal surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 21N southward between 91W and 93W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 22N southward in the SW corner of the area. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Florida Panhandle/NW Florida/the nearby coastal waters. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the cyclonic center covers the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 77W and the Bahamas and 92W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 90W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N southward. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 70W, with the Atlantic Ocean to Caribbean Sea trough. An upper level trough passes through 20N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 13N65W in the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in southern sections of Hispaniola from 17N northward between 69W and 77W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N to 20N between 65W and 80W. A tropical wave is along 61W/63W, in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Upper level NW wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, away from the cyclonic wind flow. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.11 in Bermuda, and 0.10 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough passes through 20N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 13N65W in the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in southern sections of Hispaniola from 17N northward between 69W and 77W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N to 20N between 65W and 80W. A tropical wave is along 61W/63W, in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N wind flow will move across the area for day one. The wind flow becomes variable for the first half of day two, and then it becomes southerly for the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB and for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will be moving across the area for the next 48 hours. It is part of an Atlantic Ocean-to- Caribbean Sea ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Florida Panhandle/NW Florida/the nearby coastal waters. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the cyclonic center covers the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 77W and the Bahamas and 92W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N northward from 75W westward. An upper level trough passes through 32N65W to 30N67W, 26N69W, to 20N68W, and to 13N65W in the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 75W/76W from Cuba to 25N. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N and Cuba northward from 70W westward. A cold front/ stationary front/dissipating cold front is along 30N/32N between 60W and 80W. An upper level trough passes through 32N50W to 29N51W and 25N56W. A surface trough is along 32N53W to 27N63W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N49W to 24N65W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N34W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 23N to 32N between 25W and 40W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 31N41W. Convective precipitation: weakening and dissipating precipitation/warming cloud top temperatures from 28N northward between 38W and 41W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and 58W. A surface ridge passes through a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 33N29W, to 28N33W, 23N46W, and 22N58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT