000 AXNT20 KNHC 241108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 708 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 31.7N 64.3W at 24/0900 UTC or about 43 nm southeast of Bermuda moving north-northeast at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends north of 29N between 60W-67W. Please see the latest NHC Public Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 23.8N 37.9W at 24/0900 UTC or about 912 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. An area of moderate convection has developed to the north of the system's center extending from 24N-27N between 33W-37W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 15N23W to 04N23W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted by global guidance and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed in the wave's environment between 00N-13N. A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 20N53W to 11N53W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave position coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave, mainly north of 17N between 50W-55W. A tropical wave extends across the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche into the EPAC with axis from 19N95W to 10N96W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded within an area of moisture as seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the wave's environment south of 20N between 90W-102W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N20W to 07N30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm north of the Monsoon Trough between 25W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The northern portion of a tropical wave is moving over the southern waters of the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level ridge anchored over southeast Texas covers the northwest Gulf of Mexico while an upper-level low centered over southern Georgia extends its trough into the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge axis extends across the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N87W. A surface trough extends over the southeast Gulf waters into the Florida Peninsula with isolated convection mainly south of 24N and east of 84W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle easterly flow across the basin. Expect for the surface ridge to prevail through the next 24 hours. The tropical wave will continue moving over the EPAC with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A low-level trough continues to enhancing convection across the western Caribbean west of 82W affecting portions of Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 12N due to the Monsoon Trough that extends along 09N between 76W-84W. No significant convection is observed over the remainder of the basin at this time as a surface ridge extends over the area anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the area except south of 14N between 69W-73W where fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect a similar weather pattern to continue through the next 24 hours. A tropical wave will approach from the east enhancing convection over the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the end of the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. An upper- level low will coupled with the easterly trade winds and enhance afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S Karl, T.D. Lisa, and two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the sections above for details. A surface trough extends across the western Atlantic from 26N80W to 31N77W. Scattered light to moderate convection is observed along this boundary mainly west of 78W. A stationary 1016 mb surface high is centered east of the trough near 28N75W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs centered near 33N40W and 32N27W. T.S. Karl is expected to briefly become a hurricane within the next 24 hours as it accelerates northeastward. T.D. Lisa will continue along a northwestward track becoming a post-tropical/remnant low within the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA