000 AXNT20 KNHC 231158 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 28.1N 64.8W at 23/1200 UTC or about 250 nm S of Bermuda moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 27N-32N between 59W-67W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 21.8N 35.7W at 23/0900 UTC or about 745 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands and about 1070 nm SSW of the Azores moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between 29W-36W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N91W to 19N90W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over portions of Central America between 88W-94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 12N-17N between 88W-95W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-20N between 81W-89W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 07N23W to 09N31W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-13N between 17W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is noted over the SE CONUS with axis extending from over Georgia S-SW to a broad base over the south- central Gulf waters near 24N89W. While the troughing supports a 1012 mb low centered along coastal South Carolina...the Gulf basin is under the influence of weak surface ridging extending from a 1017 mb high centered near 29N88W with axis extending SW to the east-central coast of Mexico near 20N97W. As a result...skies remain mostly fair this morning...however a few isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring from 23N-27N between 89W- 96W...and from 23N-26N between 81W-85W. Otherwise...gentle to occasional moderate E-SE winds prevail and are expected through Sunday as surface ridging holds in place across the NE and north- central Gulf. Early next week...SE winds will increase slightly across the western Gulf ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Monday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near 19N74W and extends a trough axis westward to over 19N80W and eastward to over Hispaniola. Most middle to upper level moisture is noted over the western Caribbean where scattered showers and tstms are occurring in association with a tropical wave along 91W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 14N-20N between 81W-89W...including inland portions of Belize...Honduras...and the Yucatan peninsula. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally remaining across south-central portions of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered over the island and continues to provide an overall favorable environment for precipitation and convection through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface troughing is focused along the coastline of the Carolinas this morning with a stationary front extending from 33N79W S-SW to the Florida coast near Jacksonville. A surface trough extends from near Jacksonville to the Tampa Bay region and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 31N W of 78W in association with these two boundaries. Farther east...Tropical Storm Karl is expected to track generally northward along 65W through late Friday and sweep northeastward to the east of Bermuda through early Saturday. Besides Tropical Storm Lisa in the tropical eastern Atlc...a surface trough is analyzed within the southern periphery of a central Atlc ridge from 13N47W to 21N50W. Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise... the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 32N44W and a 1025 mb high centered SSE of the Azores near 32N25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN