000 AXNT20 KNHC 230550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 27.3N 64.3W at 23/0600 UTC or about 300 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 25N-31N between 59W-67W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 21.3N 35.2W at 23/0300 UTC or about 710 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands and about 1085 nm SSW of the Azores moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-25N between 28W-35W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 08N88W to 19N88W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over portions of Central America between 85W-91W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 13N-21N between 88W-93W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N-19N between 82W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N20W to 08N29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N-15N between 12W-18W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 17W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is noted over the SE CONUS with axis extending from over Georgia S-SW to a broad base over the south- central Gulf waters near 24N89W. While the troughing supports a 1012 mb low centered along coastal South Carolina...the Gulf basin is under the influence of weak surface ridging extending from across the Florida panhandle SW to the east-central coast of Mexico near 21N97W. As a result...skies remain mostly fair this evening...however a few isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring across southern portions of the basin S of 25N between 82W-95W. In addition...scattered showers and tstms continue across the eastern Bay of Campeche S of 21N between 89W-92W in association with the thermal troughing across the Yucatan peninsula. Otherwise...gentle to occasional moderate E-SE winds prevail and are expected through Sunday as surface ridging holds in place across the NE and north-central Gulf. Early next week...SE winds will increase slightly across the western Gulf ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Monday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near 19N75W and extends a trough axis westward to over 18N83W and ENE to over Hispaniola. Most middle to upper level moisture is noted over the island of Hispaniola this evening where scattered showers and tstms are occurring between 71W-75W. Otherwise...another area of moisture and cloudiness is focused W of 80W in association with a tropical wave along 89W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 13N-18N between 81W-89W...including inland portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring elsewhere S of 16N between 76W-86W. Likely impacts as this tropical wave passes across Central America tonight will be localized flooding and possible mud slides where the heavier precipitation occurs. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally remaining across south-central portions of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and tstms continue this evening across western portions of the island including the adjacent coastal waters... however this activity is expected to diminish through the overnight hours. An upper level low is centered over the island and continues to provide an overall favorable environment for precipitation and convection through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface troughing is focused along the coastline of the Carolinas this morning with a stationary front extending from 33N79W S-SW to the FLorida coast near Cape Canaveral. A pre- frontal surface trough is analyzed to the east of the front from 31N78W to western Grand Bahama Island to near Key Largo Florida. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 30N W of 78W in association with these two boundaries. Farther east...Tropical Storm Karl is expected to track generally northward along 65W through late Friday and sweep northeastward to the east of Bermuda through early Saturday. Besides Tropical Storm Lisa in the tropical eastern Atlc...a surface trough is analyzed within the southern periphery of a central Atlc ridge from 13N47W to 19N48W. Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 33N45W and a 1026 mb high centered SSE of the Azores near 33N24W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN