000 AXNT20 KNHC 221047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 647 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 19.9N 34.0W at 22/0900 UTC or about 620 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 18N-24N between 27W-34W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Karl is centered near 24.0N 60.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 540 about nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-28N between 57W-65W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N82W to 16N82W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N between 85W-90W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N-19N between 79W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 08N24W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Storm Lisa...scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 12W- 18W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 22W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is noted over the SE CONUS with axis extending from over the Carolinas and Florida panhandle near 30N84W SW to 27N93W over the NW Gulf waters. A 1013 mb low is centered along the coast of South Carolina with stationary front to northern Florida near 30N83W. Farther west...a surface trough continues to drift westward analyzed from 25N97W to 30N93W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally S of 28N W of 87W this morning. Otherwise...a few isolated showers and tstms are also noted across the SE waters S of 25N between 79W-85W... including the Florida Straits. Gentle to occasional moderate E-SE winds prevail and are expected through Thursday. By Thursday night...surface ridging is expected to build in across the SE CONUS and NE Gulf with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevailing through the upcoming weekend. Early next week...SE winds will increase slightly across the western Gulf ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Monday late morning into early afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over the eastern Caribbean near 17N69W and extends a trough axis westward to over the NW Caribbean near 20N82W. Most middle to upper level moisture is noted W of 79W in association with a tropical wave along 83W which is generating scattered showers and tstms S of 19N between 79W- 88W...including inland portions of Central America. Likely impacts as this tropical wave passes across Central America today will be localized flooding and possible mud slides where the heavier precipitation occurs. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally remaining across south-central portions of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low remains centered to the SE of the island near 17N69W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected through Thursday as the next impulse of middle to upper level energy moves W-SW over the island from the SW North Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface troughing is focused along the coastline of the Carolinas this morning with a stationary front extending along the coast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina SW to near Jacksonville Florida. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are noted on satellite imagery W of 75W within gentle S-SE flow. Otherwise...Tropical Depression Karl lies to the E of an upper level low centered near 24N69W. Moisture and cloudiness associated with the upper level low is generating isolated showers and tstms well away from the center of Karl from 19N-27N between 66W-72W. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N43W and a 1023 mb high centered S of the Azores near 33N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN