000 AXNT20 KNHC 211754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Karl at 21/1500 UTC is near 20.8N 57.8W. Karl is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 200 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Lisa at 21/1500 UTC is near 18.0N 32.5W. Lisa is moving northwestward, or 320 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 400 nm of the center of Lisa in the E quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. The METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of a gale warning for the southern part of the area that is called: CAPE VERDE. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC, consists of: cyclonic near gale or gale ceasing in the southwestern part of CAPE VERDE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving across Jamaica, along 77W/78W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate is off the NE coast of Jamaica. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W to 15N21W. A surface trough is 10N35W 06N43W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 12N to 16N between Africa and 20W. isolated moderate from 10N southward between 10W and 50W, and elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 20W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from 29N94W in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 29N90W 26N94W 23N95W. Convective precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures from dissipating precipitation are in the area from 27N to 29N between 92W and 95W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, to the east of the line from Tampa Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. This cyclonic wind flow is moving around the Caribbean Sea 18N80W cyclonic circulation center. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the southwestern corner of the area. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 26N southward from 86W westward. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KEHC. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light rain in apalachicola. MVFR at the Tampa International Airport, and in Sarasota. light rain has been observed off and on during the last few observations at the Key West Naval Air Station. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N80W, just off the W coast of Jamaica. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere, mostly from 70W westward. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.68 in Bermuda, 0.37 in Guadalajara in Mexico, 0.20 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.17 in St.Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.05 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, Acapulco, and 0.02 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in Trinidad. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W 09N80W beyond 09N86W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 09N in Panama to 14N between 77W and 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N80W, just off the W coast of Jamaica. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere, from 16N northward between 67W and Jamaica. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: MVFR. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings; Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola for the first half of day one, changing to NE wind flow for the rest of day one. Expect NE wind flow for most of day two. A cyclonic circulation center is expected to move onshore at the end of day two, spreading cyclonic wind flow across the island. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will move across the area during the first half of day one. The second half of day two will consist of a trough covering the northern half of Hispaniola, and a ridge covering the southern half of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period, giving way to NE wind flow as the ridge moves westward for most of the rest of day one. An inverted trough will move across Hispaniola during most of day two. Expect SE and S wind flow at the end of day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N79W in South Carolina. A surface trough is along 31N78W 28N80W, across Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to 24N82W in the Straits of Florida. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from Cuba and 20N to 28N between 70W and 80W. This precipitation is occurring in an area of cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the Caribbean Sea 18N80W cyclonic circulation center. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 35N55W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N69W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 29N northward between 60W and 67W. rainshowers are possible from 29N northward between 50W and 60W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N64W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N to 29N between 56W and 66W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Tropical Storm Karl is about 400 nm to the ESE of this feature. An upper level trough extends from a 31N15W cyclonic circulation, to 30N28W, to a 30N40W cyclonic circulation center. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between Africa and 50W, and from 26N northward between 50W and 70W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT