000 AXNT20 KNHC 211009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 609 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 17.5N 32.2W at 21/0900 UTC or about 480 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 15N-22N between 25W-33W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Karl is centered near 20.2N 57.6W at 21/0900 UTC or about 305 nm NE of the Leeward Islands and about 820 nm SSE of Bermuda moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-25N between 52W-58W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N76W to 19N77W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the western Caribbean Sea and is embedded within an area of maximum low-level moisture as noted in Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is expected to remain beneath the influence of an upper level low noted on water vapor imagery centered near 16N75W. Isolated moderate convection is from 16N-20N between 75W-80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 71W-78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to 14N18W to 12N22W then from 10N35W to 05N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N44W to 03N51W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Storm Lisa...scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 09W-13W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 19W-25W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 26W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 26N95W and an upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the eastern Gulf near 25N87W. Given the southwesterly flow aloft between the two upper level features...moisture and cloudiness prevail across much of the southern portion of the basin with isolated showers and tstms occurring generally S of 25N and some of the convective activity focused on broad surface trough analyzed from 23N93W to 29N89W. This convection is occurring from 26N-28N between 90W-94W. The surface trough is expected to drift westward through early Thursday with primarily gentle to moderate cyclonic winds in close proximity to the boundary. Thursday and beyond...surface ridging is expected to build in across the SE CONUS and northern Gulf with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevailing through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A very broad upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near 16N75W and stretches NNW to over Cuba and eastward to 17N65W. Water vapor imagery indicates much of the moisture embedded within this upper level low is focused over Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters and portions of the SW Caribbean. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 12N-20N between 76W-85W including portions of inland Nicaragua and far eastern Honduras. Across the SW Caribbean...scattered showers and strong tstms are occurring S of 12N between 74W-78W as the Monsoon Trough axis extends along 10N between northern Colombia and Costa Rica. Finally...moderate to occasional fresh trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally remaining across south-central portions of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers continue to diminish across the island this morning as a tropical wave along 76W moves westward. Easterly flow aloft persists within the northern periphery of an upper level low centered over the central Caribbean near 16N75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnant low of Julia centered across eastern North Carolina is analyzed as a 1012 mb low with a surface trough extending S-SW to 30N78W then SW to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 27N-30N between 79W-81W. Otherwise...Tropical Storm Karl lies to the SE of an upper level low centered near 23N64W. Moisture and cloudiness associated with the upper level low is generating isolated showers and tstms well away from the center of Karl from 20N-28N between 61W-69W. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 35N45W and a 1023 mb high centered S of the Azores near 34N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN