000 AXNT20 KNHC 201802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Karl at 20/1500 UTC is near 20.0N 54.3W. Karl is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 315 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression THIRTEEN was upgraded to TROPICAL STORM LISA at 20/1500 UTC. The center of Tropical Storm Lisa at 20/1500 UTC is near 15.3N 30.4W. Lisa is moving northwestward, or 305 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 360 nm of the center of Lisa in the NE semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. The METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of a gale warning for the area that is called: CAPE VERDE. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 21/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of a cyclonic near gale to severe gale in the southwestern part of CAPE VERDE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 23N between 67W and 80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W to 16N20W, and along 08N33W 07N40W 06N45W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 12N to 16N between Africa and 20W. isolated moderate from 03N to 09N between 30W and 45W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 09N between 22W and 24W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico near 17N95W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N southward between Guatemala and 100W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N southward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the area from 24N northward from 90W westward. The drier air is moving southward. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 21N to 24N between 91W and 98W. A NE-to-SW oriented shear axis is along 30N85W 27N90W 24N92W 24N98w. A surface trough extends from 30N81W off the Florida coast, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 27N88W, to 24N90W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W eastward, to the north of 22N90W 26N86W 27N83W. A 1015 mb high pressure center is in the eastern part of the area, near 27N84W. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KBQX. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: light rain was occurring in Sugar Land during the last few observations. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: rainshowers, some heavy, were occurring during the last few observations at the Tampa Executive Airport. rain and thunder have been reported in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area during the last few observations. MVFR at the Key West International Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just off the SE coast of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from 15N northward from 80W westward. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.04 in Acapulco, and 0.02 in Bermuda and St.Thomas in the Virgin Islands. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W beyond 86W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 10N to 12N between 80W and 85W. Numerous strong was apparent from 09N to 12N between 79W and 85W at 20/1315 UTC. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just off the SE coast of Jamaica. Upper level SE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 73W/74W, from 19N to 23N, cutting across the SE Bahamas and into the Windward Passage. A tropical wave also is along 72W/73W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 23N between 67W and 80W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceilings: few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings: few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds during the last few observations. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that cyclonic circulation centers will be to the south of Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. SE wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows SE wind flow for much of day one will be followed by anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge at the end of day one. Expect anticyclonic wind flow also for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period, giving way to NE wind flow as the ridge moves westward. The ridge will move to Cuba. Expect more NE wind flow during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N72W to 31N78W. A surface trough continues from 30N78W to the SE coast of Florida near 25N80W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N to 31N between 76W and 80W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N and Cuba northward from 70W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 36N57W, to the north of the area. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around this center reaches 32N. A surface trough is along 32N62W 29N67W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong within 60 nm to 75 nm on either side of the line from 32N62W 27N66W 23N67W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N59W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N to 29N between 56W and 66W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate in the area of cyclonic wind flow from 21N northward. Tropical Storm Karl is about 310 nm to the ESE of this feature. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between Africa and 50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT