000 AXNT20 KNHC 192346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Karl at 19/2100 UTC is near 19.3N 49.2W, at about 730 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Karl is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 kt. A cluster of moderate convection prevails from 19N-23N between 44W-50W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. As of 19/2100 UTC, the tropical wave and low pressure analyzed along 28W are now Tropical Depression Thirteen, centered near 13.6N 28.6W. This depression is moving west at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 12N-18N between 22W-32W. Please read the latest Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis from 20N67W to 10N68W, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is embedded in an area of moderate moisture as depicted in TPW imagery. This feature is moving across the western part of Puerto Rico inducing isolated moderate convection across the island and adjacent waters north of 14N between 64W- 68W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near 17N17W to the now T.D. Thirteen near 14N28W. The only convection in the area is related to the T.D., please refer to the section above for details. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the central Gulf waters mainly north of 25N and between 86W-92W. Latest scatterometer data depicts a surface trough in this area also extending from 25N91W to the Florida Panhandle near 31N84W. To the south; an upper-level low centered over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is enhancing convection across the southern portion of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 18N. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail through the next 24 hours as an upper-level low develops over the northwest Gulf waters enhancing convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered south of the Mona Passage near 16N69W. A surface trough extends across Haiti from 21N71W to 15N72W supporting scattered moderate convection across the island and adjacent waters mainly north of 16N between 69W-73W. The Monsoon Trough extends across the southern portion of the basin enhancing convection south of 11N between 78W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean waters. Expect for the tropical wave to merge with the surface trough as it moves west with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is located south of the island near 16N69W. A surface trough extends from 21N71W to 15N72W enhancing convection across the area. Similar activity is expected through the next 24 hours as a tropical wave approaches from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Karl and T.D. Thirteen are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends across the western Atlantic from 31N77W to 28N77W with isolated convection. Another surface trough is to the east of the first one, extending from 29N65W to 32N62W. Scattered showers are observed along this boundary. The remainder of the area is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 44N26W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical system to move northwest. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA