000 AXNT20 KNHC 191759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Karl at 19/1500 UTC is near 18.6N 48.3W. Karl is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 23N southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 13N along the tropical wave. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 200 nm of the center in the N quadrant. remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible, in an area of warming cloud top temperatures, within 200 nm of the center in the W quadrant. The precipitation pattern is beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days. It is likely that a tropical depression may form later today or on Tuesday, before large-scale conditions become less favorable. Occasional heavy rains and gusty winds that are associated with this system should diminish later today in the Cabo Verde Islands. The chance of formation is high. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving across the eastern part of Puerto Rico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 19N southward between 63W and 68W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to 16N24W, through the 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 13N27W, to 10N31W and 09N37W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N to 10N between 10W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is moving through the northern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The trough passes through Georgia to the Florida Panhandle, to 26N92W. A surface trough is along 31N85W in the Florida Panhandle to 28N88W and 25N91W. Upper level NE wind flow covers much of the rest of the area. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of 30N86W 27N88W 25N91W 23N94W. isolated moderate elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is in the NW corner of the area near 27N95W. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KHHV and KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR or near MVFR conditions in the HOUSTON metropolitan area, near Pearland and Tomball. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area, in Galliano. in MISSISSIPPI and in ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR in parts of the Pensacola metropolitan area, in Milton, in the NW part of the Panama City metropolitan area, and in Tallahassee. Apalachicola: rainshowers and thunder. Punta Gorda and in parts of the Ft. Myers metropolitan area: rain and thunder. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from Haiti to NW Cuba. Broad upper level NW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward, away from the 16N69W cyclonic circulation center. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area, related to the 16N69W cyclonic center. Precipitation has been dissipating to the north of the line that runs from 16N65W to northwestern Cuba. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.44 in St.Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.19 in Curacao. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W beyond 85W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 08N to 11N between 76W and 83W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N69W, to the south of Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 69W/70W, from 14N to 22N, cutting across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 15N to 22N between 68W and 73W. some precipitation is inland in the Dominican Republic. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceilings: few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings: scattered cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: rain and thunder. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds,. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current 16N69W cyclonic circulation center will send cyclonic wind flow across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an inverted trough will span the area for much of the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. SE wind flow will be moving across the area for the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that SE wind flow will move across the area for much of the first part of day one. NE wind flow cover the area during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N57W. Cyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm of the center in the north quadrant and in the south quadrant, within 180 nm of the center in the eastern quadrant, and within 240 nm of the center in the western quadrant. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the 22N57W cyclonic center. Tropical Storm Karl is nearly 600 nm to the ESE of this feature. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N59W, to the north of the area. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around this center reaches 32N. A surface trough is along 30N64W 29N66W 27N67W 25N72W 23N74W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N to 32N between 59W and 65W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center, that is near 33N78W, to 31N77W and 28N79W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 25N northward from 70W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between Africa and 60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT