000 AXNT20 KNHC 170622 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia was downgraded to Tropical Depression at 17/0300 UTC. Tropical Depression Julia is centered near 30.2N 76.3W at 17/0300 UTC or about 240 nm south-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21KNHC for more details. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N-31N between 69W-74W. Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 18.5N 37.0W at 17/0300 UTC or about 760 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and about 1415 nm east of the Leeward Islands moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please see the latest Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the center over the northeast quadrant. Near gale-force winds are forecast for the area of Agadir. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave just off the coast of west Africa extends from 18N16W through a 1009 mb low near 13N19W to 7N19W moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a global model 700 mb trough and is embedded within a surge of moisture as shown on the Total Precipitable water imagery. Numerous strong convection is within 45 nm of a line from 15N19W to just inland over Africa near 17N16W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection dot the area within 90 nm either side of the wave axis north of 10N. This low/wave could be bring rain and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 54W/55W from 10N-21N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is along the leading edge of a global model 700 mb trough. No associated showers or deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... Monsoon trough is analyzed from 8N21W 7N28W to 7N34W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 9N43W to 11N54W then resumes near 11N57W to over Trinidad. Small clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge dominates the Gulf tonight anchored near 27N91W and extending a upper ridge axis southwest over Mexico near Tuxpan and northeast over the CONUS to over New England and the Great Lakes. At the surface, a surface ridge extends from along the eastern seaboard over the northeast Gulf to 23N93W. A mid level low is centered over the northwest Gulf with a 1010 mb low is analyzed along the coast of Texas near 28N95W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of a line from 24N95W to 27N92W and north of 27N to over the north Gulf coast between 87W-94W. Evening scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed inland over the Florida peninsula have moved into the Gulf waters within 90 nm along the coast from the Florida Keys to the Big Bend Area. The diurnal scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the east Bay of Campeche south of 21N east of 93W to inland over the Yucatan. The 1010 mb low is expected to move inland over Texas tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cutoff upper low is over the northeast Caribbean near 20N82W extending an upper trough southwest to the coast of Honduras and northeast to across Cuba. This is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm of a line from over Cuba near 21N78W to 26N82W and within 60 nm along the coast of Honduras. An upper ridge covers the central Caribbean anchored near southwest Haiti and covers most of the remainder of the Caribbean with the exception of the far northeast Caribbean. A second upper low is over the far northeast Caribbean centered east of the northern Leeward Islands near 18N61W supporting a surface trough that extends from 21N59W across the Lesser Antilles near between Dominica and Martinique to 14N62W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75/90 nm either side of the surface trough. The remainder of the Caribbean is under clear skies tonight. Strong winds will develop near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through Sunday night. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Saturday night into Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper ridge covers Hispaniola anchored near southwest Haiti. This is giving the island clear skies tonight. Fair weather is expected across the island through Sunday night as the upper ridge remains. The tropical wave that will enter the Caribbean Saturday night will reach the island Sunday night into Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Primary features of concern are Tropical Storms Karl in the central Atlantic and Tropical Depression Julia off the southeast CONUS. See Special Features above. A small upper low is over the Bahama Islands near 25N76W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N58W to 22N64W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm west of the surface trough from 26N-28N. An upper ridge anchored near 25N68W with an upper low centered near 21N53W is creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N- 32N between 54W-59W. The upper low is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 21N-24N between 49W-52W. The east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high northeast of the Azores. Tropical Depression Julia is expected to move slowly northwest through Sunday then turn northeast Sunday night as a remnant low. Tropical Storm Karl is expected to move west through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW