000 AXNT20 KNHC 170000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 16/2100 UTC is near 30.8N 75.7W. Julia is moving south at 3 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate convection extends east of the center from 29N-32N between 69W- 74W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Karl is located near 18.8N 35.6W as of 16/2100 UTC. Karl is moving westward at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate convection is east of the center from 19N-22N between 32W-35W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Near gale-force winds are forecast for the areas of Agadir and Cape Verde. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the western Africa coast with axis from 19N16W to a 1009 mb low near 12N16W to 06N17W, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Patches of scattered moderate convection are observed from 09N-19N between 09W-19W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 21N52W to 09N53W, moving westward at 15 knots. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time as Saharan dust prevails in its environment. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A short monsoon trough extends from the 1009 mb low off the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N23W to 06N34W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 20W-30W. An ITCZ extends from 09N44W to the coast of South America near 09N61W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb surface is near 29N95W. A surface trough extends south from the low to 25N96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico north of 25N between 89W-96W. Further south, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 17N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula and over the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels an upper level high is centered over the Central Gulf near 25N90W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface low in the northwest Gulf to move inland over Eastern Texas and dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern portion of a surface trough reaches the Leeward Islands near 15N62W. Scattered showers are from 14N-18N between 58W-62W. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has 10-15 knot tradewinds in a relatively lax area of surface pressure gradient. An upper-level cyclonic circulation is centered south of Cuba near 20N82W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Western Caribbean and Central America from 11N-17N between 80W-93W. Expect the surface trough to move over the Eastern Caribbean over the next 24 hours with showers. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level high is centered north of Hispaniola near 23N69W. Isolated showers are over the central portions of the island due to daytime heating and orographic lifting. Expect similar conditions Saturday evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Julia,and Karl are moving across the basin. See above. Two tropical waves are also over the tropical Atlantic. The low embedded on the Western African tropical wave deserves monitoring for further development over the next five days. Further east, a surface trough extends from 25N57W to 15N62W. Isolated moderate convection prevails within 90 nm east of the axis. Another surface trough is analyzed over the Western Atlantic from 30N57W to 22N62W that is mostly void of precipitation. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 43N18W. Near gale-force winds remain over the northeastern Atlantic NE of the Cabo Verde Islands, and NE of the Canary Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa