000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 15/0600 UTC is near 32.1N 79.8W, or about 10 nm to the W of Brunswick, Georgia. Julia is moving east-northeastward, or 60 degrees, 4 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered strong within 80 nm to 160 nm of the center in the E semicircle. isolated moderate elsewhere within 320 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 15/0300 UTC is near 33.9N 53.4W. Ian is moving north-northeastward, or 15 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong within 260 nm of the center in the N semicircle. A surface trough is 460 nm to the south of Ian, along 27N53W 20N55W 14N60W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 18N to 21N between 53W and 56W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 18N between 55W and 58W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Depression TWELVE at 15/0300 UTC is near 17.6N 27.5W. TWELVE is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 75 nm to 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. isolated moderate elsewhere within 400 nm of the center. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knot. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 23N between 40W and 44W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 16N23W, 15N30W 10N40W 09N45W. The ITCZ continues from 09N54W to 08N56W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 08N between 10W and 20W. isolated moderate elsewhere S of 20N between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N94W. Cyclonic wind flow is apparent from 26N southward from 89W westward, covering the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 20N southward between NW Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 21N southward between the eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and 94W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KBBF. MVFR: KMIS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, to 22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation center. Upper level SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 76W westward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Peninsula. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the area from 15N southward between 60W and 70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.55 in Curacao, 0.37 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.13 in Havana in Cuba. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, beyond southern Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 13N southward from 73W westward. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level S to SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. An upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, to22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation center. Upper level SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 76W westward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Peninsula. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE in HAITI: rainshowers and thunder. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...in the Dominican Republic: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago/ Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current Jamaica cyclonic circulation center will move westward during day one. Expect SW wind flow for most of day one. More SW wind flow will continue until the end of day one, as an anticyclonic circulation center will move westward and reach the southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic at the end of day one. the same anticyclonic circulation center will move westward during day two. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that easterly wind flow will prevail during the next 48 hours. The wind flow will be a little bit SE at the start of the 48-hour forecast period, and eventually it will become NE wind flow, and continue for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N54W to 26N59W and 24N69W, across the southeastern Bahamas, to 22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation center. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible between the T.S. IAN surface trough and the Bahamas. in the Caribbean Sea: isolated moderate from 16N between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Peninsula. An upper level trough is along 26N40W 17N43W 11N49W 06N52W. The 44W/45W tropical wave is moving under the area of this trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N northward between Africa and 50W. One 1027 mb high pressure center is near 37N24W. A second 1027 mb high pressure center is near 35N39W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT