000 AXNT20 KNHC 142354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 17.4N 26.5W at 14/2100 UTC or about 165 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N-22N between 22W-30W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N43W to 10N44W, moving west at 15 kt. This wave is a hybrid feature of an African easterly wave that emerged off the coast of Africa a few days ago and mid-latitude energy that moved southwest away from a middle to upper-level trough currently located across west Europe. Isolated convection remains confined to the southern portion of the wave axis in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis mainly south of 12N between 40W-46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 15N30W to 10N40W to 09N47W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N47W to 06N55W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Depression Twelve and the tropical wave along 44W...isolated convection is within 200 nm either side of the axis between 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Unstable weather prevails across the basin at this time. An upper-level low is centered near 23N89W. At the surface; a 1013 mb surface low located near 27N92W, with a surface trough extending from west to east from 27N95W to 27N87W to 29N85W. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the low/trough supported by the upper-level feature from 23N-28N between 83W-92W. To the southwest; a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 18N93W with isolated convection. Scattered moderate convection is developing across the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west reaching the southwest Gulf waters south of 22N east of 92W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area north of 26N while moderate southerly winds prevail south of 26N. Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface low to move northwest approaching southern Texas with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered just south of the Windward Passage near 17N76W. A diffluent flow aloft prevails west of this low supporting isolated moderate convection across Cuba, Jamaica, and the northwest Caribbean waters north of 16N and west of 75W. To the south; the Monsoon Trough extends along 09N supporting isolated showers between 76W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered southwest of the island near 17N76W. This low provides relatively dry and stable conditions aloft. A few showers developed across northern Haiti this afternoon/evening due to daytime heating combined with low-level moisture. This activity will dissipate quickly within the next couple of hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Twelve is moving across the eastern Atlantic while a tropical wave extends along 44W. Please refer to the sections above for details. The proximity of Tropical Storm Julia is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters north of 28N and west of 79W. To the east; a weak 1012 mb surface low is located near 31N61W. A surface trough extends from the low to 28N65W. Isolated showers are observed around the low. A surface trough extends across the central Atlantic waters from 14N61W to 22N53W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along this trough. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a pair of highs centered near 34N39W and 36N24W. Expect within the next 24 hours for the low in the west Atlantic to dissipate. T.D. Twelve and the tropical wave will continue moving west enhancing convection/winds/seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA