000 AXNT20 KNHC 141221 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 821 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Updated Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 14/1200 UTC is near 31.2N 81.7W, or about 10 nm to the W of Brunswick, Georgia. Julia is moving north, or 010 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 160 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 14/0900 UTC is near 29.3N 53.0W. Ian is moving northward, or 350 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 32N to 33N between 50W and 53W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 27N to 31N between 50W and 51W. A surface trough is 360 nm to the south of Ian, along 22N51W 15N57W 09N61W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of the trough from 16N northward. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 21N southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 16N. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 15N to 18N between 23W and 25W, in parts of the Cabo Verde Islands. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 20N southward. The wave has been re-positioned based on a long-term loop of satellite images. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is embedded in the monsoon trough. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania and Senegal near 17N17W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center that along the 23W/24W tropical wave, to 14N30W and 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 07N48W and 05N51W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 120 nm on either side of 13N24W 10N40W 08N46W 07N56W. isolated moderate from 03N to 10N between 11W and 17W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, from 90W eastward, with a trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the southwest of the line that runs from 90W at the Louisiana coast to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 88W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 26N92.5W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate covers the northeastern two-thirds of the area. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KBBF. MVFR: KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...TEXAS: MVFR in Falfurrias, and in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Galliano and Slidell. light rain in Boothville, and around the New Orleans metropolitan area. ALABAMA: IFR at Fort Rucker and in Dothan. FLORIDA: LIFR to IFR in the Panama City metropolitan area, and in Marianna. light rain in Apalachicola. MVFR in Perry and Cross City. MVFR in Saint Petersburg. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, that is to the east of the line that runs from Haiti, toward the coastal border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The cyclonic wind flow has to do with the Atlantic Ocean-to- Caribbean Sea trough that is along 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N northward between 70W and 80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.28 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe and in Bermuda. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W 11N80W, beyond northwestern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia from 13N southward. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 14N between 80W and 84W, off the coast of Nicaragua, and inland in Nicaragua. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean Sea, and into the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N northward between 70W and 81W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...in the Dominican Republic: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds in Santo Domingo. Santiago: MVFR. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current cyclonic wind flow and trough will cover the area for most of the day one, followed by SW wind flow. More SW wind flow will continue for day two. A ridge will be to the south of the Dominican Republic at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows easterly wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours, with a large- scale Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea ridge. It is possible that there may be some variations in the easterly wind flow, such as NE-to-E and E-to-SE, during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... from 20N northward to the west of the 29N56W-to-Hispaniola upper level trough: Upper level NE wind flow is merging with upper level anticyclonic wind flow, in this area. An upper level trough extends from a 29N56W cyclonic circulation center, to 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean Sea, into the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 58W and 75W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between 70W and 81W. An upper level trough is along 24N28W 16N36W 14N40W 11N45W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N to 27N between 18W and 45W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N northward between Africa and 47W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 33N41W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N between 60W and 80W. A cold front passes through Morocco near 31N10W to 31N20W and 31N23W. A stationary front continues from 31N23W to 34N30W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 28N northward between Africa and 30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/HUFFMAN