000 AXNT20 KNHC 140603 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 14/0600 UTC is near 30.5N 81.8W, or about 13 nm to the NNW of Jacksonville, Florida, and 46 nm to the SSW of Brunswick, Georgia. Julia is moving north- northwestward, or 340 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 29N to 32N between 77W and the coasts of Georgia and Florida. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 14/0300 UTC is near 27.6N 52.8W. Ian is moving north-northwestward, or 345 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 150 nm to 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 15N22W. The low center is along a tropical wave that is between 20W and 22W from 20N southward. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 14N to 17N between 23W and 25W, in parts of the Cabo Verde Islands. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 20N southward. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is embedded in the monsoon trough. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N17W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 15N22W, to 14N31W, to 07N38W, and to 09N39W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 90 nm on either side of 12N24W 11N31W 08N42W 07N55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, from 90W eastward, with a trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 90W westward. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 26N90W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 90W eastward. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KGRY and KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR in Brooksville. light rain at the St. Pete/Clearwater International Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, that is to the east of the line that runs from Haiti, toward the coastal border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The cyclonic wind flow has to do with the Atlantic Ocean-to- Caribbean Sea trough that is along 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N northward between 70W and 80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.28 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe and in Bermuda. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W 11N80W, beyond northwestern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia from 13N southward. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 14N between 80W and 84W, off the coast of Nicaragua, and inland in Nicaragua. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean Sea, and into the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N northward between 70W and 80W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...in Port-au- Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceilings; scattered cumulonimbus clouds. in the Dominican Republic: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds in Puerto Plata. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current cyclonic wind flow and trough will cover the area for most of the day one, followed by SW wind flow. More SW wind flow will continue for day two. A ridge will be to the south of the Dominican Republic at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows easterly wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours, with a large- scale Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea ridge. It is possible that there may be some variations in the easterly wind flow, such as NE-to-E and E-to-SE, during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... from 20N northward to the west of the 29N56W-to-Hispaniola upper level trough: Upper level NE wind flow is merging with upper level anticyclonic wind flow, in this area. An upper level trough extends from a 29N56W cyclonic circulation center, to 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean Sea, into the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 58W and 75W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between 70W and 80W. An upper level trough is along 24N28W 16N36W 14N40W 11N45W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N to 27N between 18W and 45W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between Africa and 50W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 33N41W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT