000 AXNT20 KNHC 110605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 21N southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 14.5N. The 12-hour forecast consists of a 1009 mb low pressure center near 16.5N 47.5W...a possible tropical cyclone. Expect gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, from 60 nm to 300 nm in the northern quadrant of the low center. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 201 between 37W and 54W. Environmental conditions still are favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next day or two while this disturbance moves toward the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation through 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 18N between Africa and 20W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from southeastern Cuba southward to Panama. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 17N southward from 76W westward. A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 20N southward. Convective precipitation: numerous strong is inland in Mexico, in the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the northwestern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 11N21W, to 09N28W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center that is along the 45W/46W tropical wave, continuing to 10N52W. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong from 10N to 12N between 20W and 23W, and from 05N to 07N between 31W and 36W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 04N to 13N. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the upper Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the line 29N90W 20N97W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. A surface trough is along 28N91W 25N90W 23N89W, in the central Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N to 30N between 85W and 89W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 24N84W in the southeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N to 24N from the Yucatan Channel eastward. Upper level winds are not favorable for development, and the low pressure center is forecast to weaken while it moves westward 5 to 10 mph into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. The chance of formation through 48 hours is low. A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 29N84W, in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. Earlier light rain was being observed in Tomball. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Patterson and Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: Rain and thunder are close to Natchez. Light rain is at the Key West International Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea that is from 80W eastward. Much of the cyclonic wind flow has to do with the Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.34 in Guadeloupe, and 0.19 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W, to 11N76W, beyond northern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered strong from 03N to 12N between 70W and 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N71W. A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N67W 22N69W 20N71W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N to 24N between 60W and 74W. There are no signs of a surface cyclonic circulation center. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system, while it moves generally west-northwestward about 15 mph. The chance of formation through 48 hours is low. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: rain and thunder. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceilings/few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. Scattered cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: rain and thunder. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings, and few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings, and few cumulonimbus clouds, in each city. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that cyclonic wind flow will cover the area for day one and for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB: the current cyclonic circulation center is forecast to spread cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center moves westward during day one. The cyclonic circulation center will reach the Windward Passage, spreading southerly wind flow across the area for the rest of day one. Day two will start with southerly wind flow, switching to variable, from the northeast, and finally from the southeast again. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that the wind flow will be from the E and SE at the start of day one, followed by NE wind flow. NE wind flow will span Hispaniola for day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N77W. A surface trough is along 78W from the northwestern Bahamas northward. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from Cuba northward between 65W and 80W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N25W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between 25W and 40W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 30N to 35N between 19W and 30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT