000 AXNT20 KNHC 101103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 13N. The 30-hour forecast consist of a 1008 mb low pressure center near 16N48W...a possible tropical cyclone. Expect gale- force winds within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE semicircle, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 20N between 36W and 50W, and from 06N to 11N between 50W and 60W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for additional development It is likely that a tropical depression may form during this weekend or early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The chance of formation is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W from southeastern Cuba southward to Panama. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 10N to 12N between the coast of Colombia and 79W. A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 23N92W, across the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, along 93W/94W into the eastern Pacific Ocean. No significant deep convective precipitation. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 14N32W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 44W/45W tropical wave, to 08N50W. Convective precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong from 07N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 20W, and from 10N to 13N between 20W and 26W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the middle Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 90W eastward. A surface trough is hugging the coast of western Florida. A 1012 mb low pressure center is in the Straits of Florida near 24N82W. A surface trough extends from Lake Okeechobee, to the 1012 mb low center, toward northwestern Cuba. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from the Florida Keys to northwestern Cuba. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development, while this system moves westward 5 to 10 mph into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Squalls and gusty winds are possible in parts of the Florida Keys today on Saturday. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. MVFR in Alice and in Tomball. from LOUISIANA to MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA: IFR In Evergreen. Florida: MVFR near Milton. IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. Light rain in Marathon and at the Naval Air Station in Key West, in the Florida Keys. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 65W/66W from 17N to 22N. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 20N along the trough. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Mona Passage. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W eastward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N to 26N between 60W and 70W. This precipitation pattern is not showing any signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west- northwestward about 15 mph. The chance of formation is low. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W westward. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...none. The monsoon trough is along 09N75W, beyond 10N85W in Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 10N to 11N between 76W and 79W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level N wind flow covers Haiti. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Dominican Republic. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: not available. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: not available. Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: MVFR, and few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB: the current Mona Passage cyclonic circulation center is forecast to spread cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center moves westward during day one. The same cyclonic circulation center will remain near Hispaniola during day two, spreading more cyclonic wind flow across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind will cover Hispaniola during day one, with a trough. More cyclonic wind flow is forecast for Hispaniola during day two. An inverted trough will remain in the area of Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that SE wind flow will be moving across the area, for the first 36 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. NE wind flow will span Hispaniola for the last 12 hours of the time period. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N77W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Cuba northward between 70W and the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. A surface trough is along 31N65W 28N67W. A second surface trough is along 33N61W 30N62W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 18N in the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea,across Cuba northward to 32N, between 65W and the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N50W. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the area from 20N to 32N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 32N50W 30N52W 28N53W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N29W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between 25W and 40W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 30N to 35N between 19W and 30W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 24N northward between Africa and 80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT