000 AXNT20 KNHC 100715 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 CORRECTED THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 13N. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong within 30 nm on either side of 17N38W 17N42W 16N46W 14N47W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 06N to 20N between 34W and 50W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for additional development It is likely that a tropical depression may form this weekend or early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The chance of formation is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from the Windward Passage southward to the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. No significant deep convective precipitation. A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave cuts across the northwestern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond southwestern Guatemala. Convective precipitation: remnant rainshowers and thunder from 21N southward between the Yucatan Peninsula and 92W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 20N16W to 15N30W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is at the southern end of the 44W/45W tropical wave. Convective precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong from 08N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 17W, and from 10N to 13N between 20W and 25W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the middle Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 90W eastward. A surface ridge extends from the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle, into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 20N97W. A surface trough is hugging the coast of western Florida. A 1012 mb low pressure center is in the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. A surface trough extends from Lake Okeechobee, to the 1012 mb low center, to northwestern Cuba. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N to 26N between 80W and 84w. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development, while this system moves westward 5 to 10 mph into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Squalls and gusty winds are possible in parts of the Florida Keys on Saturday. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. Florida: light rain in Marathon in the Florida Keys. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 17N to 22N. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Mona Passage. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W eastward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 24N between 60W and 70W. This precipitation pattern is not showing any signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward about 15 mph. The chance of formation is low. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W westward. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...none. The monsoon trough is along 09N77W, beyond the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 13N southward from 74W westward. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level N wind flow covers the western half of Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving around the Mona Passage cyclonic circulation center. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no ceilings; scattered cumulonimbus clouds. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB: the current Mona Passage cyclonic circulation center is forecast to spread cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center moves westward during day one. The same cyclonic circulation center will remain near Hispaniola during day two, spreading more cyclonic wind flow across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind will cover Hispaniola during day one, with a trough. More cyclonic wind flow is forecast for Hispaniola during day two. An inverted trough will remain in the area of Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that SE wind flow will be moving across the area, for the first 36 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. NE wind flow will span Hispaniola for the last 12 hours of the time period. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N76W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Cuba northward between 70W and the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. A surface trough is along 31N66W 29N68W 26N70W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from Cuba northward between 65W and the southeastern coast of the U.S.A., and from 19N to Cuba between 78W and 83W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N51W. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the area from 20N to 32N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 27N to 32N. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N29W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward between 23W and 36W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 30N to 34N between 20W and 28W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 24N northward between Africa and 80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT