000 AXNT20 KNHC 080903 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 503 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 17N with axis near 31W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind shear and abundant moisture from the surface to 850 mb as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft support scattered showers and tstms from 05N to 15N between 25W and 36W. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a little more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while this system moves westward and then west-northwestward into the central Atlantic. A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean waters extending from 08N to 19N with axis near 62W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind shear. However, water vapor imagery indicate there is strong dry air subsidence in that region, which continue to hinder shower activity. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 10N to 21N with axis near 84W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Except for the far NW Caribbean, abundant moisture in the wave environment, favorable deep layer wind shear and diffluence aloft support scattered showers and isolated tstms between 80W and 85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N16W and continues along 10N31W to 07N43W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 31W, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N E of 19W and from 05N to 10N between 47W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge anchored over the SE CONUS extends SSW across the basin and provides ESE gentle to moderate wind flow. Water Vapor imagery continue to show strong dry air subsidence across the entire basin, which favors fair weather. A tropical wave currently over W Caribbean waters will move across the Yucatan Peninsula today and into the Bay of Campeche Friday. Some showers and tstms associated with the wave are expected in the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula as well as the SW basin through Sunday. Little changes expected elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave that is moving across the western Caribbean generating scattered showers and tstms over central and eastern Cuba and adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. A second tropical wave is moving from the Lesser Antilles to the E Caribbean basin this morning. However, little shower activity is anticipated with it. Please refer to the tropical waves section for details. The second area with active weather is the SW basin where the tropical wave, low pressure over NW Colombia and the presence of the E Pacific monsoon trough support heavy showers and tstms within 150 nm off the coast of Colombia. Fair weather and moderate trades dominate elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to the Yucatan Peninsula today. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave, currently moving across the W Caribbean Sea support scattered to isolated showers in the Windward Passage and cloudiness over Haiti. This shower activity will cease after sunrise today as the wave continues to move W toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Fair weather is then expected to continue across the Island through early Saturday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Diffluent flow between an upper low over the SE Gulf of Mexico and a broad upper anticyclone centered over the central Bahamas support scattered to isolated showers across the Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. That shower activity is also associated with a surface trough that extends from 26N74W to 18N76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are also N of 26N between 67W and 75W. Lastly, a surface trough in the deep tropics supports heavy showers and tstms from 15N to 20N between 53W and 58W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad but weak surface ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS