000 AXNT20 KNHC 071723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave over the Cabo Verde Islands extends along 23W/24W from 6N-17N moving west near 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a broad surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 210 nm east of the wave axis south of the Capo Verde Islands. Tropical wave in the west Atlantic extends along 52W/53W from 12N-20N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 14N-18N between 50W-54W. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 74W/75W from 23N through the Windward Passage to off the coast of Colombia near 12N moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery and is along the southwest side of an upper ridge enhancing the associated convection. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the wave axis north of 17N and within 120 nm of line from 17N77W to northeast Nicaragua near 14N84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 17N16W and continues along 10N23W 9N30W to 7N38W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N46W 10N54W to inland over South America near 9N61W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 8N to the monsoon trough between 15W-20W, from 8N-11N between 20W-23W, from 5N-10N between 27W-34W, from 4N-8N between 38W-49W, and from 8N-11N between 57W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper low/trough is moving the east Gulf and is centered near 24N85W extending a trough axis to over the Yucatan peninsula generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N- 26N between 80W-85W. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by an upper ridge anchored over Texas. A weak surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a pair of 1024 mb highs, one over western North Carolina and a one over south Georgia. Easterly surface flow across the central Gulf is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms that dot the central Gulf from 22N-29N between 86W-92W. The surface ridge will persist through late in the week. A tropical wave will reach the southeast Gulf late Friday/early Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge anchored north of Hispaniola extends a ridge axis southwest into the Caribbean across the Windward Passage/east Cuba to over Central America enhancing the activity associated with the tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from a 1012 mb low just inland over Colombia near 10N75W along 11N78W then across Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 13N west of 76W to inland over Panama and Costa Rica. The trade winds are generating isolated showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm of a line from 13N65W to Hispaniola near 18N71W. The tropical wave will move across the west Caribbean through Thursday reaching the Yucatan peninsula Friday. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are along the southwest coast of the Dominican Republic with clouds building over the mountainous region of the island. This could bring more showers and possible thunderstorms to the island later this evening. Skies should clear Thursday as the tropical wave moves further away from the island with the next wave moving over the island this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough over the northwest Atlantic continues to support a stationary front north of 31N. Lingering moisture over the west Atlantic is generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of a line from 30N69W to Florida near Vero Beach. A weak surface ridge covers the west Atlantic north of 26N west of 70W with a 1023 mb high near 31N73W. A mid level low is near 28N62W with a surface trough extending from 34N60W to 27N62W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm either side of the surface trough. A second weaker surface trough extends from 26N52W to 22N54W with isolated showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm west of the surface trough. A broad upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area with a stationary front extending through 32N23W to 31N27W where surface trough continues along 27N36W to 28N50W. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the surface trough. A surface ridge is building over the central Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high near 38N46W. The north portion of the Caribbean tropical wave will move through the southeast Bahamas later today. The west Atlantic surface ridge will persist through the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW